Brexit – A Month to Go

LIAM SANDERSON: In principle, Brexit is a great concept. The UK joined the European community to enjoy the benefits of economic union and free trade, but gradually, and by stealth, the EU has enforced political union upon its members. Consequently, Britain’s sovereignty has been undermined through institutions like the European Court of Justice and the European Commission, both of which, are unelected. Currently, Britain is paying a substantial sum of money to be governed by laws that Parliament have little to no say over. Britain has fought two world wars to avoid taking orders from Germans and they are more than willing to make the comparatively small sacrifice of losing economic integration to prevent it this time. Brexit is about Britain taking back control of her money, borders, and laws, and not some racist outburst of the white working classes as many try to portray. However, one issue Brexiteers may have underestimated was the duration and difficulty of implementing Brexit with such a lack of consensus in the House of Commons.   

Since Theresa May’s deal was defeated by an enormous margin of 230 votes through a coalition of opposition MPs and Tory rebels, little progress has been made. Some efforts have been directed at seeking assurances on the Irish backstop agreement, however, without legal changes that guarantee the UK’s ability to terminate the backstop, British MPs will not pass any Brexit deal. Within the Commons, there are numerous factions looking for different types of Brexit, or repulsively, no Brexit at all. Until the EU present a deal that persuades a majority of MPs to agree to it, a no-deal Brexit is the expected result. In fact, as Theresa May has committed to leaving the EU on March 29th, and the EU have refused to re-negotiate the deal, a no-deal Brexit seems inevitable.

This view, however, is naïve. Having once denied any resolve to call for a general election and then proceeding the next week to call a general election, Theresa May is quick to change her mind. A no-deal scenario is also not favourable to the EU as it may disrupt trade, at least, temporarily. As a result, the EU may be interested in last-minute renegotiations if pushed to the limit, though, this is less likely. There are also mechanisms for MPs to extend or even revoke Article 50 (the clause that set the Brexit transition period into motion). If MPs are too afraid of the implications of a no-deal Brexit, a majority may form to try to extend the negotiation period either to prepare better for a no-deal scenario or to get a deal. Extension of article 50 would require all the other EU member states to agree, which may prove problematic. Revoking article 50, however, could be triggered single-handedly by the UK.

All these options, and a lack of direction from the government, leaves a great level of uncertainty. As one Conservative backbencher MP said to me this week: “we are in unchartered territory and as such all eventualities are possible. It is impossible to predict what the outcome will be”. The only consensus is that don’t know what’s next. This is clearly an important time for the country, and unfortunately with an absence of unity or strong leadership, there is a possibility of error. The worst outcome is no Brexit at all, as this would seriously undermine the democratic mandate of the British people. Preferably, the EU would present the UK with an acceptable deal, however, with their inclination to punish the country, and the UK’s lack of unity, this is unlikely. Consequently, the most realistic and best option is a no-deal Brexit where the UK joins the WTO and continues to trade with the EU under a temporary free-trade agreement until a deal is reached.

The Project Fear campaign continues to undermine Brexit by presenting near apocalyptic opinions of the outcomes of a no-deal Brexit in a desperate attempt to preserve the globalist agenda. Unfortunately, despite their proven lies after Brexit was voted for, some MPs and media have been persuaded that a no-deal Brexit must be avoided at all costs. They talk of dramatic drops in GDP growth or recession, rising food prices and a shortage of important medicines, and even troops on the streets. The British people are a strong people and will not cower in the face of misinformation and, even if these lies were true, they know the first priority is to defend their rights as a proud, independent island nation.

Max Magid