Part II: Partisan Gerrymandering Sneaks Past Courts, Rewrites Political Calculus
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AAMIR JAMIL: Partisan gerrymandering across the country is quickly shifting the political landscape for 2024, with the current House of Representatives nearly evenly divided. However, partisan gerrymandering that survives court battles will leave a lasting legacy beyond that already enshrined by the 2022 election.
This installment of my partisan gerrymandering series covers the past redistricting battles that will shape 2024. While court cases did not strike down gerrymandered maps in several states, in yet other cases partisan majorities freely solidified their political power.
New Mexico Democrats attempted to take all three of the state’s Congressional seats last year by moving Democratic voters into the competitive Second District, which was flipped blue in 2018 and red again in 2020. They succeeded in the 2022 elections, with the district flipping to Democrats again. New Mexico Republicans sued the legislature, alleging partisan gerrymandering. In an unusual case, a state court found that the map was gerrymandered, but not “egregiously” so, allowing for it to stand. With the map remaining under the new standard, the seat will remain competitive in 2024.
Nevada Democrats went a step further by carrving out portions of Rep. Dina Titus’ (D) Las Vegas district to strengthen Reps. Steven Horsford (D) and Susie Lee (D). Widely expected to be a “dummymander,” where the party in power actually loses seats because they spread their political base across several competitive districts, Nevada Democrats gambled and won, holding all three seats in 2022. Republicans went to the courts before the 2022 elections, but a judge blocked their lawsuit, though partisan gerrymandering claims are still being litigated.
Like New Mexico and Nevada, Kansas and Oregon successfully shepherded partisan gerrymanders through rounds of lawsuits. However, their gerrymanders actually failed in the 2022 election. The Kansas legislature redrew their map to add several Republican-heavy areas to Democratic Rep. Sharice David’s district. Kansas Democrats lost their court battle when the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that partisan gerrymandering was not unconstitutional, but Davids nevertheless went on to win by her largest margin yet in 2022.
Oregon Democrats originally pledged to work with Republicans on redistricting to get them to attend legislature sessions and meet quorum, but later broke the deal to draw maps on their own. Having gained an additional district from apportionment, the legislature attempted to strengthen Democrats’ chances by shifting Republican voters to a single Republican district, connecting one district to liberal cities, and drawing the new district adjacent to Portland. Despite being heavily gerrymandered, courts disagreed with the Republican plaintiffs. Still, the map backfired, with the new district remaining competitive and Republicans flipping another district.
While all of these states survived court battles, they succeeded to varying degrees. Other cases have been more complicated. Maryland Democrats, famous for partisan gerrymandering, packed Democratic voters into Republican Rep. Andy Harris’ district. Even more egregiously, they added land to the district on the other side of the Chesapeake Bay. Rather than continue a drawn-out appeals battle, the state legislature drew remedial maps, maintaining the partisan balance.
Illinois Republicans were buoyed in the leadup to 2022 judicial elections, hoping to flip the state supreme court. Republicans looked forward to using the court to fight back against state Democrats, who are famous for gerrymandering. The state legislature refused to let this happen, redrawing judicial maps that had been in place since 1964. To no one’s surprise, they gerrymandered the map, stacking Illinois’ highest court. Democrats then went to town with their Congressional maps, drawing two snake-like districts and packing four Republican representatives into two districts. While they got their wishes in the 2022 elections, they caused one moderate Republican to retire and another to lose their primary. Here, gerrymandering solidified Democratic power, but also radicalized the state GOP.
Further cases of gerrymandering have been less overt, and never reached the courts. Rather than slicing up the opposing party’s districts to maximize their power, some state legislatures simply destroyed competitive districts. In Utah, Indiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, Republicans lost districts or saw them become highly competitive in 2018. After winning them back in 2020, legislators went to work drawing heavily-Republican districts to protect incumbents. Solidifying power and cutting competition is a separate danger from partisan gerrymandering: it can polarize the House and reduce the number of moderates in competitive seats.
Missouri’s 2nd District became competitive in 2018 and 2020 as suburban voters abandoned Republicans. Missouri Republicans, who considered gerrymandering Kansas City to eliminate one of two Democratic seats, chose instead to drastically change the 2nd District by adding rural, Republican voters. Similarly, when Arkansas’s 2nd District based in the capital Little Rock started becoming competitive in 2018, Republicans promptly expanded the district. Indiana Republicans redrew the 5th District and Kentucky Republicans similarly redrew the 6th District, adding rural voters to the rapidly growing and Democratic-trending suburbs of Indianapolis and Louisville, respectively. In Oklahoma, Democrats flipped the 5th District in 2018, only to lose it in 2020. Oklahoma Republicans similarly added rural and exurban areas to the Oklahoma City-based district, setting up a decade for Republican dominance. Utah is another instance, where Democrats flipped the Salt Lake City-based 4th District in 2018, lost it in 2020, and Republicans subsequently added conservative areas to reduce competitiveness.
Partisan gerrymandering is playing a large role in House elections. With courts mandating redraws, states defying courts, other states surviving court battles, and yet others choosing to protect their majorities rather than expanding them, this decade will see fewer competitive races. Still, court-mandated remedial maps and the potential for gerrymanders backfiring could very well determine the House majority in the 2024 elections where Democrats and Republicans will be fighting over the few toss-up seats left.
Aamir Jamil is a columnist for On the Record. He is from New Jersey and is a freshman studying government and Spanish in the College. He is interested in the roles policy and law play in politics.