Governor Ron DeSantis’ fragile stardom

ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL: If anyone can claim to be having a much better year in 2021, it’s Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. From national pariah in the early days of COVID as cases regularly exceeded 10,000 and college students from across the country partied it up on Miami Beach to potential 2024 contender Ron DeSantis has pulled off an unexpected public opinion turn. 

Though his approval rating has not returned to its eye-watering March 2019 peak of 62%, a clear majority of Florida voters (53%) voiced their support for the Governor’s performance in a recently released Mason-Dixon Poll. In the same poll, 52% said they would vote for him in 2022, giving him an eleven point lead against potential rivals Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried and former Governor and current U.S. Representative Charlie Crist. 

A few weeks ago at CPAC, DeSantis emerged as the breakout star of the conference’s straw poll, placing second behind President Trump for the attendee’s choice of a nominee and first when Trump wasn’t included on the ballot. Glowing profiles in conservative-leaning publications have attempted to rehabilitate his image, drawing comparisons (some fair, some unfair)  between the successes of other big state governors such as disgraced New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and embattled California Governor Gavin Newsom. 

What a stunning turnaround from only a few months ago, when former President Trump joked at a rally that he would “find a way” to primary DeSantis if Florida went for Biden. 

DeSantis can’t afford to get comfortable just yet. His stardom may be growing, but it is certainly not unbreakable.  Recent controversies suggest that scrutiny of DeSantis will only increase in the coming weeks and months as the 2022 midterms, and the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary approach.

Consistently, national and state media outlets have criticized DeSantis for his lackluster and insufficient pandemic response. Whether it was his combativeness with both the Trump and Biden administrations about mask mandates, closing beaches and vaccine shipments, or his open disregard for public health warnings, or even his suppression of COVID data, DeSantis has bucked nationwide trends regularly with mixed success. In recent days, deaths have slowed and have failed to reach the levels seen in comparable states and Florida’s economy has mostly avoided expected drop-offs from projected tourism losses. However, Florida has seen uncontrolled community spread and the state has experienced consistent overflow in hospitals and frequently high case counts. 

To contextualize how extreme Florida’s case counts are, the seven-day average of cases in Iraq is 4,449. Florida’s seven day average is 4,523. Iraq also reported a quarter of the deaths Florida did this past week. Iraq has 18 million more inhabitants than Florida and is dealing with this pandemic with a fragment of the resources at Florida’s disposal amidst a far more unstable political climate. The Pope, who faced significant criticism for his recent Papal Visit to Iraq, would have been more in danger if he had gone to Florida last week. 

The attacks on DeSantis’ COVID response have only sharpened as reports have emerged, indicating, or in some cases confirming, that DeSantis and political allies have made questionable decisions surrounding the opening of vaccination sites.  

Issues of vaccine corruption began creeping up in February with reports that Vanessa Baugh, a Manatee County Commissioner and ally of Governor DeSantis, used her position to secure spots for her friends and associates at a VIP vaccination center. Texts obtained by the Tampa Bay Times and Bradenton Herald have confirmed that Commissioner Baugh’s decision was politically-motivated and that she intended for the site to be a photo opportunity site for Governor DeSantis to tout in his re-election campaign.

Fears that DeSantis may be exploiting the present situation have crystallized as the Miami Herald has revealed that residents of Ocean Reef, a wealthy enclave in the Florida Keys, donated extensive sums of money to Governor DeSantis’ committees after their community was given priority during the early stages of the roll-out. While DeSantis has denied allegations of quid pro quo behavior and claimed that Baptist Health South Florida, the local hospital system that managed the vaccine site, was responsible for the site choice, the hospital has openly rejected that narrative. According to Baptist Health, the hospital system operated under the governor’s direction and the state’s team tasked with opening vaccine sites, including in Ocean Reef. 

In response to these announcements, many Florida Democrats, including Nikki Fried, have called for an FBI investigation into the matter. Though it is still to be seen if DeSantis exploited distribution for political purposes, narratives about FBI investigations, whether founded or unfounded, have negatively affected Florida statewide candidates in the past. Look at 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, or even Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

Critics have also raised concerns about Florida’s dysfunctional unemployment system. Admittedly, these issues predate DeSantis’ administration, largely the fault of former Governor and current Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and his administration’s neglect of the benefits system. However, under DeSantis’ leadership, the chaos of the state’s unemployment benefits system came into focus as the economy crashed in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic and Floridians scrambled to tap into the pool of resources. DeSantis has admitted that the system has “unnecessary roadblocks” and has pledged to reform the system, but several months have passed and little to no action has been taken. 

And even that Mason-Dixon poll isn’t a slam dunk for DeSantis. Though that poll had DeSantis up by double-digits against his rival Fried, that lead can be chalked to her far lower name recognition. Despite this lack of a fully-developed statewide brand, she is already performing better in a hypothetical matchup against DeSantis than Charlie Crist, a once-popular Governor and four-time candidate for statewide office (Attorney General, Governor twice, and Senate). She also has far better unfavorable/favorables numbers compared to DeSantis, which would likely aid her initial efforts to gain name recognition in the state. 2022, though less propitious for Florida Democrats after Trump’s surprising gains in the state, isn’t a certainty for Florida Republicans either, especially if Fried succeeds in building her brand.   

With his new stardom, more eyes are beginning to scrutinize the Governor and his administration’s efforts, both fairly and unfairly. The adage comes to mind: the higher up the mountain, the more treacherous the fall. As DeSantis scales the peak of Florida politics and the headwinds grow stronger, we’ll see if he can keep a steady footing. 

Eric Bazail-Eimil is a second-year student in the School of Foreign Service studying Latin America and Europe as a Regional and Comparative Studies major. A native South Floridian and a proud Cuban-American, Eric’s column “The Florida Project” appears biweekly in “On the Record.”