Event: Livelihoods, Migration, and Landscape Evolution in Bangladesh

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ZANE NAGEL: Rivers, Hills & Plains, and Ecological Ruins. Those were the three ideas through which Dr. Tariq Ali, an expert in the history of Bangladesh and professor at the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, gave a short history of Bangladesh to begin the Georgetown Mortara Center for International Studies’ panel “Livelihoods, Migration, and Landscape Evolution in Bangladesh.”

The panel, moderated by Dr. Katherine Donato of Georgetown University, featured Dr. Ali’s framing followed by presentations from Dr. Kimberly Rodgers and Dr. Amanda Carrico– academics at the University of Colorado Boulder – on their work collecting migration data in rural Bangladesh. It concluded with a presentation from Dr. Bishawjit Mallick, a professor of human geography at Utrecht University in Utrecht, Netherlands. 

Dr. Ali’s framing centered on change. The geographic movement of rivers – the Padma, Ganges, and Brahmaputra – fundamentally changed the human geography and religious structure of Bangladesh. Shifting geography, Dr. Ali explained, was deeply connected with shifting regimes and property rights for centuries. 

Hills and plains were also crucial to the formation of Bangladeshi society, serving as natural societal borders and dividing communities. The former British colonial administration utilized this, separating communities into “hill” and “plain” peoples. The rolling geography of Bangladesh formed its society long before any formal diplomatic agreements.

The final framing point Dr. Ali used to preamble the conversation on climate and migration was “ecological ruins”. Ecological ruins are the infrastructure of previous eras of Bangladeshi history that have been left to wither. Dr. Ali discussed the Bangladeshi rail system, once employed by the British, that has been largely dormant for decades, disrupted natural habits and left the nation scattered with abandoned railcars. He also detailed the UN poldering project – a form of flood control – that was designed to aid rural communities. Left decrepit from decades of neglect and mismanagement, the remnants of the UN’s efforts have created a variety of environmental hazards, shaping the current politics and migration patterns of Bangladesh. 

Dr. Kimberly Rodgers, of the University of Colorado Boulder, began her presentation with a discussion of deltas. Deltas, Rodgers said, are “fertile, dynamic, low-lying coastal sedimentary landforms.” Because of deltas’ natural resources and ideal conditions for human flourishing, people have flocked to them. Rodgers noted that although deltas make up just 1% of global landmass, they contain 35% of the world’s population, and are the homes of cities including Dhaka, Shanghai, and Bangkok. 

Because delta cities are low-lying, the effects of climate change are disproportionately felt by these communities. The Bangladeshi government, recognizing that sea levels are constantly rising due to  warming temperatures, riverbank erosion, and down stream damming, proposed the “Delta Plan 2100” to help vulnerable populations adapt their economies and develop resiliency to the effects of extreme weather. The program, a joint effort between the government of Bangladesh and various international organizations, including the World Bank, also strives to improve infrastructure and transportation while limiting the number of people who are forced to migrate due to their homes and livelihoods being negatively affected by extreme weather. 

Dr. Rodgers expanded on Dr. Ali’s conversation about poldering, noting that polders were designed to stop flooding catastrophes. However, to accomplish this goal, consistent maintenance is crucial and many of Bangladesh’s polders, built with UN and USAID funds, have begun to trap crucial sediment and pose an environmental hazard to both wildlife and people. 

With a clear image of the geography and environmental challenges that Bangladesh faces, the conversation pivoted to discuss migration and mobility. Dr. Amanda Carrico, part of a team at the University of Colorado Boulder that has conducted extensive surveying on migration in rural Bangladesh, began her presentation with a comparison of planned migration (usually for economic opportunities in Dhaka or another major city), sudden migration and circular migration (those who migrate with the intent to return) and migration with no intent to return to the home community. 

Dr. Carrico then presented findings from her research team's project, the Bangladesh Environment & Migration Survey. To develop an accurate image of the communities in which they were working, Dr. Rodgers, Dr. Carrico, and other researchers spent time in small Bangladeshi villages talking with residents and performing a method of data collection called “person-year analysis.” A “person-year analysis” allowed researchers to collect data by asking people to document their migratory experiences and the years in which major events in their life, such as a first job or marriage, took place.

In a survey of males aged 15-44, the team found a direct correlation between climate and domestic migration in Bangladesh. When erosion was affecting a community, there was a higher likelihood that young men would be leaving for other opportunities. For every additional KM2  of land lost to erosion, the chances that a young man would migrate rose 5%. However, climate was not predictive of international migration. 

The researchers also looked at heat as a predictor of migration. They found there to be a two to three-times increase in the amount of domestic migration when the areas of study were in a “heatwave” (a concept that Dr. Ali eloquently noted is difficult to define in Bangladesh’s warm climate). They also found that those migrating due to heat tended to be older and work in the agricultural sector, though they again found no linkage between increasing heat and international migration. 

The final presenter was Dr. Bishawjit Mallick who looked at the question of “Who is Staying and Why?”. Dr. Mallick noted that 90-percent of Bangladeshis never migrate. He also discussed the idea of voluntary versus non-voluntary migration. Some people are forced to leave due to insecurity or climate disasters whereas others leave by choice in pursuit of greater economic opportunity. Dr. Mallick made the case that the more resource dependent a community was, the higher the likelihood that an individual from that community would want to migrate. 

Voluntary and involuntary migration in Bangladesh are both being affected by the changing climate. Young men are leaving rural communities and heading to Dhaka and other major cities due to erosion and deadly, long-term heat. They are also migrating for more traditional reasons such as the search for greater opportunities and to provide for their extended families. 

As rising water levels and natural disasters become more prevalent, people will increasingly flock to Dhaka and other economic hubs. However, what happens when those hubs, many of which are built on low-lying deltas, become threatened by climate change themselves? Where will millions of people migrate to? How will this mass migration change the global economy?  This is the question that engineers, economists, and politicians must answer as the effects of climate change on migration will only become more pronounced over the coming decades.

Zane Nagel is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a freshman in the School of Foreign Service, majoring in International Politics. In his free time, he enjoys reading about international security and watching Seattle Mariners baseball.