North Carolina: the nation’s looking glass

ROBIN HUANG: North Carolina’s political identity has long been difficult to capture. As a swing state, North Carolina’s political races are fluid all the way down the ballot. In fact, one-third of North Carolinians are registered as unaffiliated. In the last election, North Carolina re-elected Democratic Governor Roy Cooper while delivering its electoral votes to Republican Donald Trump as well as control of the State General Assembly to the GOP. North Carolina also continually topped spending charts on political ads in the 2020 election cycle: the Biden campaign and its allies spent $65.4 million, while Trump and his supporters invested $45.4 million.

Republicans have won North Carolina in every presidential election since 1980, with the only exception being President Barack Obama’s 2008 bid. Nonetheless, the Democratic Party remains optimistic of its future prospects in the state. North Carolina’s 2020 Senate election between Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham was one of the country’s most closely-watched races, especially when the race was mired with an extramarital scandal and controversy over COVID-19. 

At the state level, North Carolina is even more competitive. In the General Assembly, Republicans’ seven-year supermajority was broken in 2018. While the governor’s mansion is controlled by Democrats, the lieutenant governor is a Republican. Similarly, the Council of State is composed of three elected Democrats and five elected Republicans. No one party can claim a secure hold on the state.

North Carolina is also a reflection of an increasingly diverse South. With the legacy of the Solid South, the region has long been viewed as a conservative haven. Nonetheless, changing demographics have made the American South more politically competitive in recent cycles. Democrats’ victory in Georgia in the presidential and Senate run-off elections is one sign of a long-term political shift in the broader region. In North Carolina, there is a growing number of registered BIPOC voters, especially among the Hispanic, Asian-American and Black communities. While Black voters have historically supported Democrats, the votes of the Hispanic and Asian-American communities are still splintered between the two parties. Although the vote of BIPOC communities are far from monolithic, it is still critical in the hotly-contested swing state.

The division between rural and urban voters has also grown. 72 percent of North Carolina’s residents are considered urban. Major cities such as Greensboro, Raleigh and Charlotte have attracted major companies and newcomers to their booming economies, while rural counties atrophy. Consequently, rural counties are continually overlooked in key services such as broadband access and medical care. In politics, the urban-rural divide has led to deepening political polarization as urban voters lean further blue and rural voters remain red. Analysts have pointed to the uncertain future of shifting demographics in the state as motivation for primarily Republican-led efforts to influence voting outcomes, such as the controversial voter ID law or its history of gerrymandering.

North Carolina is caught in a tug-of-war between opposing political forces. Recent episodes of state-level political battles highlight a fragmented state. In 2016, North Carolina made national news for its controversial Public Facilities and Security Act, or HB2, which barred city laws from superseding state law in determining whether transgender individuals could use the bathroom of their gender identity. The bill was seen as targeting liberal-leaning urban areas such as Raleigh, Charlotte and Chapel Hill, which had approved such acts before the passage of HB2. In protest, major employers such as PayPal and Braeburn Pharmaceuticals pulled their business operations in the state. The episode concluded when Governor Cooper was elected to office and struck a compromise repeal with the Republican-controlled General Assembly. 

Separately, after Cooper’s election, Republican lawmakers pushed for constitutional amendments in 2018, which limited executive authority to appoint judicial nominees and state board positions. The amendments would have stripped powers traditionally reserved for the executive and prevented Cooper, a Democrat, from advancing his agenda by ceding his powers to the Republican-controlled legislature. In a historic campaign, all of North Carolina’s living former governors appeared in solidarity to urge voters to reject the amendments. Ultimately, the constitutional amendments were unsuccessful. Nonetheless, the saga captures how politics have disrupted the very governmental institutions of North Carolina as well.

Over the next few months, this column will spotlight the forces that are shaping North Carolina’s political landscape. Whether it be shifting demographics or bitterly-fought political battles, North Carolina’s politics will not only direct the future of the state, but also shape outcomes for the entire country. North Carolina is a looking glass of broader trends in American politics, and must be closely watched to understand the future of the United States.

Robin Huang is a sophomore in the Walsh School of Foreign Service studying International Politics and Public Health. She calls Chapel Hill, North Carolina her hometown.