Navigating Biden's Decline and Trump's Shadow

Photo via Associated Press

PATRICK EMERSON: As President Biden’s approval rating continues to plummet, the 2024 Republican presidential primary continues to develop, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis emerging as the main opposition to former President Donald Trump. Biden’s unpopularity not only presents a prominent opportunity for these candidates but also raises some challenges.

On the one hand, Biden’s low polling numbers provide clear ammunition for both Haley and DeSantis to attack the President’s record and present themselves as stronger, younger alternatives. They can, and have, capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of key issues, such as inflation, his controversial 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For instance, Haley has criticized not only Biden’s economic plan but also that of former President Donald Trump in an effort to separate herself from other GOP candidates. “Joe Biden is proving that reckless spending is the road to socialism. But he’s not the only culprit. Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama added more to our national debt than the previous 42 presidents combined,” she said in a speech in September.

Similarly, DeSantis has also targeted Biden’s economy. “Joe Biden’s lies about the economy are a slap in the face to working families across the country struggling to get by,” said DeSantis's campaign spokesman.

While Biden’s polling numbers certainly provide a potent angle of attack for these GOP hopefuls, they also pose a challenge for Haley and DeSantis. They must not only rally against Biden’s policies but also navigate the enduring shadow of Donald Trump, whose influence continues to loom large over the Republican base.

For Haley, the task involves leveraging her diplomatic experience as a former U.N. ambassador and distancing herself from certain Trump-era policies. Her approach aims to attract moderates and traditional Republicans while avoiding the ire of fervent Trump loyalists. However, the challenge is compounded by the reality that the average Trump voter may not readily align with Haley’s vision, despite her service in his administration, given her attempts to strike a balance between broader Republican values and departing from elements of the Trump legacy.

DeSantis’s course is more complex. Given that his polling has only worsened since the launch of his campaign, his path to secure the nomination is much more difficult. His confrontational stance against COVID-19 mandates and liberal immigration policies is a nod to the Trump-like assertiveness that still resonates with a considerable segment of the GOP base. Yet, though Trump supporters would likely align at least policy-wise with DeSantis, with Trump himself in the race, it is unlikely that they will ever move towards the “Never Back Down” campaign.

This balancing act presents a formidable challenge for DeSantis. While his policies echo Trump’s, winning over staunch Trump supporters might be nigh-impossible without an endorsement from the former president himself, which will never happen unless Trump’s legal troubles disqualify him. Trump has endorsed DeSantis once before, during his first run for the Florida governorship, and his legal troubles only seem to be magnifying, though they have, in fact, boosted his polling numbers. DeSantis must carefully balance his appeal to both the moderate conservative base while also casting the image of strength and decisiveness akin to that of Trump.

As Haley and DeSantis navigate the complexities of a shifting political landscape, their success will hinge on their abilities to harness discontent with the current administration while offering unifying and forward-looking visions that resonate beyond partisan lines. The outcome will define the future of the Republican Party not just for the next four years but for decades to come.

Patrick Emerson is a columnist for On the Record. He is a sophomore in the College of Arts and Sciences, studying Government.