Two Polls, Two Pictures
RYAN COSTLEY: In recent weeks, two reputable polls painted starkly different pictures of hypothetical general election matchups between President Donald Trump and the leading Democratic contenders. On Monday, a poll showed Trump trailing Joe Biden by less than five points in nearly every battleground state. The same survey showed Trump even closer to both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The poll came as a sobering reminder of Trump’s viability in many swing states to Democrats.
Later in the week, the Washington Post and ABC released a survey that showed the same three Democrats all defeating Trump by more than 14 points in a national vote. While one was a state sample and the other a national, the latter showed the largest margins of any candidates against Trump since the beginning of the Democratic primary season. The difference between the two left some Democrats abundantly confused over how viable Trump will be next November.
In truth, the best way to analyze the state of the race based on these two surveys may be to not analyze it at all. The election is still a year away and polls only show a snapshot in time. There is plenty of time for things to change. That said, Trump’s approval rating has remained largely steady since the months after he took office, and among registered voters Hillary Clinton led Trump by about 3 points nationally a year before the election, not far from the popular vote margin on Election Day.
What Democrats should do with this information is two-fold. For starters, when it comes to the primary process and impeachment proceedings, they should remember that voters in six states are going to decide the election. Trump’s national approval rating does not matter electorally, so the party should always remember to focus on Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and Florida. That means that if I were an operative I would spend more time with the New York Times data than the ABC/Washington Post survey. Thinking about how voters in these states react to the news is a better use of time than continually seeking the approval of the energized left often found on Twitter or in the bubbles of New York, Washington, and Los Angeles.
The second aspect of this information that Democrat should take to heart is that the swing state polling was of likely voters, not all American adults or registered voters. While different polling firms utilize different methodologies for predicting who is likely to vote, Democrats win when they turn out new and unlikely voters. For three years, Trump’s numbers have been worse among all adults then they have been among registered and likely voters. One of the surest ways to widen the tight margins shown this week is to turnout some of the population that may have voted for Obama in 2012 before staying home in 2016.
Ryan Costley is a sophomore in the School of Foreign Service studying International Politics. He is from Atlanta, Georgia.