The Myth of Electability
As the calendar has turned to 2020 and actual voters finally begin to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, the theme of electability has once again come to the forefront of American politics. The overwhelming desire to defeat Donald Trump in November has caused many Democratic voters to view the primary through that lens alone. Different campaigns have begun presenting different messages about why they are the best candidate to defeat the President, from Joe Biden’s theory of the return of Obama-Trump voters, to Bernie Sanders’ claims of a growing political revolution, to Pete Buttigieg’s idea of a massive generational shift. Given the potency of electability arguments in this primary, it is worth asking whether electability is even something you can predict.
My short answer: it isn’t. What is abundantly clear about all of the arguments surrounding electability is that there is no one way of defining this very abstract concept. Electability is not an attribute that a candidate possesses. The label “unelectable” is prescribed after a candidate loses an election as a supposed explanation. However, simply labeling losing candidates as “unelectable” ignores the variance and unique nature of every election. Hillary Clinton did not lose the 2016 election because she was “unelectable.” She lost the election for many different reasons, but has been given the label since the election to suggest that the outcome was inevitable. Elections are not inevitable and none of the current Democratic frontrunners are “unelectable” or, conversely, “guaranteed to win.” Any of them can win and any can lose.
The last two men elected to the presidency, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, were both seen as unable to win a general election during their primaries. Their victories should underscore the fluid nature of who can and will win elections. Circumstances and voters’ minds can and will change between now and November. The candidate that wins the Democratic nomination will have put together enough of a coalition to be capable of winning the general election. If Democratic truly want to defeat Trump in November, they should stop pretending that they can perfectly diagnose what the country wants or is ready for. Rather, they should fight for the policies they believe in during the primary, rally behind the winner, and go about the real and difficult work of persuading voters and turning them out to the polls during the general instead of assuming the country has already made up its mind.
Ryan Costley is a sophomore in the SFS studying International Politics. He is from Atlanta, Georgia.