What Do the Democratic Wins in Virginia Mean for 2020?

JACOB DENNINGER: Democrats took control of both houses of the Virginia legislature earlier this month in the commonwealth’s “off-off-year” elections. Democrats now have complete control of state government and are in a position to take action on important issues like gun violence, education, health care, and the Equal Rights Amendment. The elections in Virginia were also a warning sign for Republicans as 2020 approaches.

Election Results

In 2017, Democrats had made big gains in Virginia in the wake of Donald Trump’s election. The commonwealth elected a Democratic governor, and Democrats picked up 15 seats in the 100-seat House of Delegates. However, Democrats narrowly failed to flip the House of Delegates that year, and the State Senate was not up for election. 

Going into election day this year, Republicans held a 21-19 majority in the State Senate and a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates. Democrats needed a net gain of two seats in each chamber to take control of the legislature, and on election day they got just that. 

In the State Senate, Democrats flipped the two seats they needed to win a bare 21-19 majority in the chamber. Delegate John Bell flipped an open Northern Virginia seat held by a retiring Republican, and in the Richmond area political newcomer Ghazala Hashmi beat a Republican incumbent to become the first Muslim woman elected to the Virginia State Senate. 

Democrats also appear to have flipped six House of Delegates seats to win a 55-45 majority in the chamber. Democrat Nancy Guy appears to have flipped a Virginia Beach-area seat, and currently has an 18 vote lead over Republican incumbent Chris Stolle, according to unofficial results. In Georgetown’s backyard, Democrat Dan Helmer defeated incumbent Tim Hugo, the last Republican Delegate in Northern Virginia. A little further South in Stafford County, Democrat Joshua Cole flipped a seat he lost by just 82 votes in 2017. And in Southeastern Virginia, Democrats Clint Jenkins, Martha Mugler, and Shelly Simonds all flipped districts that had been redrawn after a court threw them out as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander earlier this year. 

Victory must have been particularly sweet for Simonds. In 2017, she got exactly the same number of votes as incumbent Republican David Yancey. The tie was broken by randomly picking a candidate’s name out of a bowl. Yancey’s name was picked, giving him the seat and Republicans control of the House of Delegates. This time Simonds won by 17 percentage points in the redrawn district. 

The night was not without disappointments for Democrats. In Virginia Beach, political newcomer and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal came up short in her bid to unseat incumbent Republican State Senator Bill DeSteph. After a mass shooting at a Virginia Beach municipal center on May 31 in which 12 people were killed, gun violence prevention became the defining issue of the race, with Cotter Smasal advocating for gun safety measures and the very pro-gun DeSteph opposing them. 

In the Richmond area, Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman lost her bid to unseat Republican incumbent Kirk Cox, the speaker of the House of Delegates, in a seat that had also been redrawn due to the racial gerrymandering case. The consolation for Democrats is that while Cox will still be a delegate, he will now be the minority leader instead of the speaker. 

Del. Debra Rodman, a Democrat known for her big pink glasses, also came up short in her bid to flip a Richmond-area State Senate seat. And Larry Barnett, a Democrat who lost a Richmond-area House district by 128 votes in 2017, came up short again against Republican incumbent Roxann Robinson, losing by 191 votes this time. 

But despite a few disappointing races, flipping both chambers of the state legislature was still a major victory for Virginia Democrats. 

Democrats Ready To Take Action

Having won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats now have full control of state government and can take action on their policy promises. 

Democrats who flipped Republican-held seats ran on gun violence prevention, an issue that became one of the defining issues of races across the state after the Virginia Beach shooting in May. After the shooting, Virginia’s Democratic governor called a special legislative session to address gun violence, but Republicans used their razor-thin legislative majorities to adjourn the special session after just 90 minutes without taking any action. 

On election day, Virginia voters punished these Republicans who refused to take action by taking away their legislative majorities, and now Virginia’s Democratic governor is already talking about making gun violence prevention a priority when the new Democratic legislature takes office in January. 

Democrats can also take action on other priorities, which include increasing funding for public education and increasing teacher pay, protecting Medicaid expansion and expanding access to affordable health care, and ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment. 

Implications for 2020

The Virginia elections also held some warning signs for Republicans with 2020 approaching. Democrats now hold all of the state legislative seats in Northern Virginia, and they made gains in suburban Richmond. The Democratic gains show that suburbs are continuing to trend towards Democrats, with President Trump and Republican inaction on gun violence turning off suburban voters. 

Suburban voters are a crucial voting block in many key swing states. The suburbs around Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee will help decide the winner of the electoral college votes of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the states that gave Donald Trump the presidency. If Trump and Republicans continue to lose suburbs, it could imperil Trump’s chances of winning reelection and Republican chances to retain control of the Senate and take back control of the House of Representatives. 

Weakness in the suburbs could also cause Republicans to lose control of state legislatures across the country in 2020 just as they lost control of the Virginia state legislature in 2019. This would deny them the ability to gerrymander state legislative and congressional districts after the 2020 census like they did in many states in the 2010 redistricting cycle after winning control of many state legislatures in 2010. 

Jacob Denninger is a sophomore in the College from Massachusetts majoring in Government and a staff writer for On the Record. He is also a Deputy Director of Campaigning for the Georgetown University College Democrats, and he campaigned for several Democratic General Assembly candidates in Virginia in 2019.