The invisible elections: Down ballot races in 2020

ANDREW MORIN: With the 2020 elections days away, coverage is understandably dominated by the top of the ticket, with the Senate and House of Representatives trailing as secondary concerns. Despite the importance of the national races, however, there are also many candidates running in state and local elections this year that will help decide the country’s direction. 

In 2010, Republican candidates rode a wave of Tea-Party energy and resistance to the Obama administration to a national landslide victory, gaining six seats in the Senate and more than 60 in the House. However, beyond their federal victories Republicans also swept into power in more than 20 state legislatures, an arguably more impactful long-term win. With this newfound power, Republicans dominated redistricting following the 2010 census, entrenching their majorities on the state and federal level and allowing them to pursue a decade-long conservative agenda largely inoculated from Democratic resurgences. 

With 2020 as another census year, the results of this week’s down ballot races could determine partisan control across the country for the next ten years. Buoyed by a reaction against President Trump and rising support across the nation’s suburbs, Democrats are on the offensive, aiming to retake lost ground through state-level victories. 

One prime target is the Texas House of Representatives. Sixteen years after losing their last majority in the chamber, Democrats managed to win 67 of 150 seats in the 2018 midterms, just nine shy of a majority. Notably, the celebrated Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke  managed to win a bare majority of Texas House districts even as he narrowly lost to Ted Cruz two years ago, raising Democratic hopes of flipping the chamber this year. Many of the competitive districts lie within the rapidly growing suburbs of Dallas and Houston, regions that exemplify the national suburban swing towards the Democratic Party and directly threaten Republican dominance in the state.

 Last week, amid a surge in fundraising for state legislative candidates, the nonpartisan state legislative handicapper CNanalysis moved the chamber to toss up status, reflecting rising Democratic hopes in the Lone Star state. With Texas expected to gain three seats in the United States House of Representatives, a seat at the redistricting table would be a valuable prize in the country’s second-largest state, while also confirming the massive state's increasingly competitive status. 

Another critical target is in Arizona, where both the state house and senate look to be possible Democratic flips. Bolstering Democratic fortunes, most of the key races in these chambers lie in Maricopa County, which contains 60% of the state’s population in Phoenix and its extensive suburbs, a former Republican stronghold whose Democratic shift helped elect Democratic U.S. Senator Kirsten Sinema in 2018. To win these chambers, Democrats now need just two seats in the Arizona House and three in the state Senate, which would give them their first majority in the state since 1966, during the administration of Lyndon B. Johnson. Democratic control would end an era of unified right-wing government in Arizona, defeating a legislature infamous for hyper-conservative bills. From 2010’s SB 1070, one of the strictest anti-illegal immigration laws in the country’s history and the so-called “birther bill,” which would have enshrined its namesake conspiracy into state law, the Arizona legislature has outraged state Democrats for decades. It now seems to be within reach.  

In chambers across the country, Democrats and Republicans are fighting dozens of other noteworthy battles. In Minnesota and North Carolina, Democrats believe they can finally win complete control of their state governments and allow their Democratic governors to enact their legislative agendas. The Alaska House of Representatives, governed by a tenuous Democratic-led coalition, looks to be one of the only Republican pick-up opportunities this year thanks to primary defeats of coalition-supporting incumbents. From chambers in ultra-liberal New York to arch-conservative West Virginia, there are unresolved questions of partisan control and supermajorities that will determine the direction of the states for the next two years and beyond. 

Even beyond the legislative houses, hundreds of other decisions will be made down the ballot on Tuesday. In Portland, Oregon, Democratic Mayor Ted Wheeler faces strong challenge from the left by Sarah Iannarone, a small business owner who has closely embraced the local protest movement. A fierce fight for the Montana governorship could end 16 years of consecutive Democratic control. Additionally hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on dozens of ballot questions across the nation, as Massachusetts will decide whether to become the second state to adopt ranked choice voting and California will vote on ending their constitutional prohibition on Affirmative Action, among many other policy issues. These choices, too, will directly dictate policies, amending state constitutions and laws.

While presidential and Congressional coverage will dominate the coming weeks, control of the states will have a similarly important impact over the next few years. While not the center of national attention, the decisions made in state houses, capitals and city halls remain vital. 

Andrew Morin is a freshman in the SFS from New York with interest in Congressional politics and foreign policy.