Alaska Ballot Measure 2: Ranked-choice voting can change Alaska politics
TAKUYA AMAGAI: Alaska has narrowly voted to pass Alaskan Ballot Measure 2 during the 2020 General Election. The ballot measure will create an open primary process, which will allow the top four vote-getters to advance to the general election. During the general election, Alaskan voters rank their choices among the four candidates. Candidates could win the election if they receive a majority of the first preference vote or get the majority of the votes after all of the second, third, and fourth choice votes are tabulated. The approval of this ballot measure has an opportunity to shape both Alaskan and U.S. Politics for the better.
Alaskan State Legislature
While Republicans won 23 seats out of 40 seats in the Alaskan State House of Representatives in the 2018 election, they did not win control of the House. This was because 15 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and 1 Independent Member formed a governing coalition that denied Republicans' control of the House. After the 2020 election, another bipartisan coalition could control the House, which now consists of 20 Democrats and 20 Republican members.
The passage of Measure 2 is likely to increase the chance for bipartisan coalitions to form in the Alaskan State Legislature. In the past, moderate Republicans were worried about cooperating with Democrats because they could be voted out during the Primary Elections. Measure 2 eliminates the Closed Party Primaries, which provides an incentive for Alaskan legislators to reach more voters in the middle to claim one of the four spots in the primary. During the General Election, ranked-choice voting will also incentivize candidates to run more positive campaigns because candidates can win the election by collecting votes from voters who had a different candidate as their first choice. Measure 2 could create a generation of Alaskan policymakers who will strive to work in a bipartisan manner.
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski
The passage of Measure 2 is likely to have an impact on how US Senator Lisa Murkowski will cast her votes, which could determine the fate of legislation and appointments in the U.S. Senate. In the 2019 Report Card by GovTrack lists Senator Murkowski as the most politically left in the Senate Republican Caucus. In recent years, Senator Murkowski has bucked her party by voting against the Affordable Care Act's repeal and was the only Republican Senator who voted against proceeding to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Considering that the control of the U.S. Senate is likely to be very slim, President Biden will likely need Senator Lisa Murkowski’s vote on confirming executive and judicial nominees and passing key legislation.
Measure 2 is likely to help Senator Murkowski face less pressure from the right in her upcoming 2022 election. In 2010, Senator Murkowski lost the Republican primary but was able to win in the General Election by conducting a successful write-in campaign. In 2022, Senator Murkowski will likely face a Republican primary because she has cast votes that bucked the Republican Party. Measure 2 is likely to help Murkowski because she no longer has to run in a Closed Republican Primary, where she could face a formidable challenger from her right. Instead, Murkowski could advance to the General Election by appealing to moderate Democrats and Republicans and Independents. Measure 2 thus gives Senator Murkowski an incentive to cast her votes as a moderate Senator, which could help Democrats pass bipartisan legislation and help President Biden form his administration.
So why should you care about this Ballot Measure if you are not in or from Alaska? Suppose this ballot measure is successful in moderating the behavior of Alaskan legislators. In that case, it could show a way forward for the rest of the country in how to overcome bitter partisanship. Additionally, Alaska is showing indications of becoming a future battleground state. While in 2020, President Trump did win Alaska, Joe Biden was able to narrow his margin of victory by around 5% compared to 2016. The narrowing Republican advantage illustrates a possible opening for Democrats to contest and win Alaskan statewide elections, including its two U.S. Senate seats. It is time for people to start paying attention to The Last Frontier State.
Takuya Amagai is an MPP Student in Class 2022. He is originally from Tokyo, Japan, and is a cat person.