#HoyasInIA: Not All Bad News for Biden

GRACE XU: The adrenaline, anticipation, and energy of the Iowa caucuses have made the past week nothing short of a political rollercoaster. Four days after our #HoyasInIA cohort experienced the caucus for ourselves at precinct 38 (where Cory Booker picked up a delegate!), the ride has not stopped, leaving the political world bewildered and the Iowa Democratic Party feeling more than a little queasy. 

With DNC Chair Tom Perez’s call for a recanvass and the long delay in results dominating headlines, the significance of this controversy is at the forefront of political minds across the country. As the first primary contest of the 2020 presidential race, the Iowa caucuses have long served as an indicator of who will become the eventual nominee, especially on the Democratic side. In fact, seven of the past nine Democratic caucuses have correctly predicted the party’s nominee.

As a general rule in politics, winning or doing well in the four early states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada — is absolutely crucial to running a successful campaign. Especially in a historically large primary field where every delegate counts, the 2020 candidates must get an edge early and fast. Failure to do so will not only mean dramatically reduced support, but also greater difficulty making ends meet financially (unless you’re a billionaire, which makes Bloomberg an interesting case). Hence, the strongest campaigns run on the momentum generated by the results of the Iowa caucus. 

There is plenty to be talked about with regard to the criticism both campaigns and voters have leveled against the Iowa Democratic Party. However, it is worth noticing what is not being discussed: Former Vice President Joe Biden’s performance. For a candidate who was consistently polling at first or second place a few months ago, Biden’s fourth-place finish in Iowa should sound a few alarm bells. To what extent can he rely on his African American base in South Carolina if he is routed by three highly popular candidates in both Iowa and New Hampshire? 

To clarify, the inconsistencies and delay in caucus results can neither be attributed to a specific campaign’s actions nor proven to be intentional. Furthermore, not all of the results have been released yet, which should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the lack of coverage about the actual performance of candidates poses several particular implications for the Biden campaign. 

At least in Iowa, Biden’s rallies simply do not spark the same energy characterizing those of Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren. True, his base leans toward an older demographic. However, a weak finish is problematic when electability reigns as the top voting issue among Democrats. Even as he and other top contenders gave speeches interlaced with the language of success and confidence, Biden’s campaign benefitted the most from the prolonged delays, a news cycle consumed by controversy, and doubts about the integrity of the caucus results. 

Whether it is the conspiracy theories about Pete Buttigieg’s and Hillary Clinton’s connections to the app recording results or the official statements coming out of the Iowa Democratic Party, people are distracted from the campaigns themselves. For Buttigieg and Sanders, the lack of attention paid to the competitive margin between their performances in Iowa is beneficial in confirming their individual leads, but also costly in terms of their ability to build momentum out of immediate news coverage. For Biden, it has thrown a much-needed lifeline to his campaign. When New Hampshire rolls around in a week,  the specifics of the Iowa race itself may be a thing of the past. 

At a deeper level, the reported inconsistencies and repeated delays have fundamentally undermined trust in the results. Even if 100% of the results had been released earlier, the overall integrity has been compromised, which means that political analysts will be putting much less emphasis on the Iowa caucus when evaluating the overall race. This shift conveniently works in Biden’s favor, allowing his campaign to lean into his potential victory in South Carolina. It also helps him make the case that 2020 will be a third year in which Iowa does not predict the nominee or carry as much weight in the DNC’s ultimate decision.

There is no telling what direction this situation will take, but one thing is certain: this primary race will be extremely competitive, volatile, and grueling. From here on out, no campaign can afford to take its foot off the pedal. With the presidential nomination still completely up in the air, all we can do now is sit back, strap in, and enjoy the ride through what is sure to be one of the most tumultuous years in American political history.

Grace Xu is one of six students who joined GU Politics in Iowa as part of #HoyasInIA.