Will Arizona decide the fate of the presidency, the US Senate and the Supreme Court?
This year, both the Biden Campaign and the Trump Campaign have been battling it out over a wide range of battleground states. This year Arizonan voters have a unique opportunity to shape not only the Presidential and U.S. Senate race, but also the U.S. Supreme Court.
Presidential Election
Let’s start with the Presidential election. Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are one of the top targets for both campaigns. Five Thirty-Eight’s 2020 Election Forecast gives Biden a favorable chance of winning the state. If the Biden campaign wins Arizona, it will open up multiple paths to win 270 Electoral Votes. Winning Arizona means that the Biden campaign could potentially afford to lose Wisconsin or Minnesota, which has ten electoral votes each. (Current predictions by Five Thirty-Eight points to Biden winning both states). For the Trump Campaign, losing Arizona will mean that they will have to make up for the deficit somewhere else, such as winning Wisconsin or Minnesota, or winning both New Hampshire and Nevada. Biden is currently favored to carry all of these states, which significantly narrows Trump’s path to 270 Electoral Votes.
So how likely is it that Arizona flips to the Democratic Party? There were signs in 2016, where Arizona emerged as a possible new battleground state. In 2016, while Trump still carried Arizona, he carried it by 3.5% compared to Mitt Romney, who carried the state by 10% back in 2012. It is also noteworthy that John McCain won his election by close to 13% in the same year. All of this pointed to a serious underperformance by Donald Trump, in a state that was considered to be reliably Republican in 2016.
The 2018 midterm elections illustrate contradictory signs on whether Arizonans could be persuaded to vote for Democrats. The Republican Governor Doug Ducey won his reelection by a sizable margin. On the other hand, Democratic Candidate Kyrsten Sinema narrowly won her election for the U.S. Senate seat. These two elections highlight that while it may be possible for Democrats to win Arizona, it will be hard to overcome the state’s Republican leanings.
U.S. Senate
The control of the U.S. Senate also hinges on Arizona. The current U.S. Senate is composed of 53 Republican Senators and 47 Democratic Senators. If Joe Biden wins the Presidency, Democrats will need a net gain of 3 seats to get to a 50-50 Tie, where Vice President Kamala Harris can cast a tie-breaking vote. To gain an outright majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats would need to have a net gain of 4 seats.
The path for Democrats to gain control of the U.S. Senate is unlikely to happen without their victory in Arizona. Right now, the Democratic Senatorial Candidate Mark Kelly is projected to win the Special Election for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat against the incumbent U.S. Sen. Martha McSally. Election forecasting websites such as Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight, list Arizona as one of the likeliest pickup opportunities for Democrats in the upcoming election, aside from the U.S. Senate Election in Colorado.
If Democrats are successful in Arizona, that only puts them two seats away from tieing for control in the U.S. Senate. (This is assuming if Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, wins his reelection). However, if Democrats were to fall short in Arizona, they would have to make up for the difference by winning contests in other states that currently have Senate Races that are too close to call or lean Republican, such as Montana, Iowa and Georgia. It’s certainly possible for Democrats to win in states which have a history of electing Republicans. But their path to winning control of the U.S. Senate would significantly be easier if Mark Kelly wins.
Supreme Court
As mentioned above, Arizona’s Senate election is a special election. This seat was held by U.S. Senator John McCain until he passed away in 2018. Arizona state law allowed Governor Doug Ducey to fill the seat until the Special Election in 2020. Governor Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to John McCain’s seat, who then resigned on December 31st, 2018. Governor Ducey then appointed then U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, who just lost her election to the other U.S. Senate seat to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
If Mark Kelly wins his special election, he could be sworn into office earlier than January 2020. Arizona law dictates that the winner of the special election must be sworn into office by November 30th. The timing of Mark Kelly’s swear-in date could impact the fate of the open U.S. Supreme Court Seat. Assuming no change to the membership in the U.S. Senate, Republicans have a four-seat margin to confirm a Supreme Court Justice (Vice President Mike Pence can break a tie vote while he is Vice President). If Mark Kelly wins, that margin shrinks to 3 votes.
Could Mark Kelly’s election block Republicans from appointing a Supreme Court Justice? That depends on a multitude of factors. First, Republicans are aware of this fact as well. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) will likely try to push for a Confirmation Vote while he has the maximum number of Republican Senators. So chances are by the time Mark Kelly becomes a U.S. Senator, the U.S. Senate would have already voted for the Supreme Court Justice. Secondly, assuming that the Confirmation Vote does not happen until after Mark Kelly is sworn-in, it is unclear if Democrats can persuade 3 Republican Senators to vote no on appointing the Supreme Court Justice. Currently, two Republican Senators are in opposition to filling Justice Ginsburg’s seat. Assuming Mark Kelly wins and Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski do not change their minds, it still leaves them one vote short of denying President Trump a chance to fill the seat. That last vote may be difficult to find, considering that the vast majority of Republican Senators are in favor of filling Justice Ginsburg’s seat quickly.
Mark Kelly can be the deciding vote that leaves Justice Ginsburg’s seat vacant until Joe Biden is sworn as President. But everything will have to go right for Democrats for that to happen in the next couple months.
Takuya Amagai is an MPP Student in Class 2022. He is originally from Tokyo, Japan, and is a cat person.