The Virginia gubernatorial election: A dire warning for Democrats
ZACH FOTIADIS: In a blow to Democrats nationwide, former governor Terry McAuliffe conceded the Virginia gubernatorial race to Republican hopeful Glenn Youngkin in the morning following Election Day. A race that many in the Democratic Party once saw as safe, considering McAuliffe’s name recognition and Biden’s over ten-point margin of victory in the state in 2020, has now potentially become the nightmare scenario for the party ahead of the 2022 midterms. Knowing that Republicans can win Democratic-leaning elections in the semi post-Trump era should serve as a dire warning for Democrats about the need to provide the voters with an incentive to keep them in power. No longer the opposition party, electoral strategies cannot rely largely on the political incompetence of the other side, as such a plan will backfire as soon as Republicans nominate an at least marginally compelling candidate.
The campaign of Governor-elect Youngkin took advantage of this Democratic shortcoming to successfully carve a path to victory in Virginia. Presenting himself as a level-headed, folksy suburbanite fighting for “parents rights” and a return to pre-Covid normalcy, the 54-year old multimillionaire persuaded the electorate that he was a reasonable and responsible alternative to former Governor McAullife. Running on a platform emphasizing a well-defined set of subjects, Youngkin effectively maintained a political balancing act, simultaneously appealing to issue-oriented and culture war voters both desiring a change in leadership.
Youngkin’s advertised political persona boiled down to a fiscally conservative yet socially moderate average Virginian less concerned about Trump than about getting kids back to school, as well as ensuring that they not be instructed with a “radicalized” curriculum once there. The most detailed item on his agenda was his economic plan, largely focused around tax reform proposals such as eliminating the state grocery tax, doubling the income tax standard deduction, cutting the retirement tax on veteran income, subjecting local property tax increases to voter referendum, and perhaps most importantly, suspending a gas tax increase. In an incredibly inflationary financial climate blamed by Republicans on the Biden administration’s unprecedented amounts of federal spending, these bread-and-butter conservative tax policies may have been more welcomed than usual by Democratic-leaning Virginia voters.
Youngkin appeared to effectively walk the tightrope on certain hot-button social issues. He vocally criticized the Texas Heartbeat Act which banned abortion after six weeks, instead supporting a “pain threshold” ban after 20 weeks. He clarified his personal opposition to same-sex marriage, but stated he would not intefere with the issue as governor. He espoused strongly anti-gun control rhetoric while campaigning in the Republican primary, opposing background checks and red flag laws related to gun purchases passed by state Democrats. However, he remained essentially silent on the issue in the months leading up to the general election and even lost the endorsement of the National Rifle Association. Most pertinent of all, Youngkin publicly encouraged Virginians to receive the Covid-19 vaccine, but equally voiced his opposition to the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate policy and CDC recommendations pertaining to mask wearing.
Education was among the biggest themes in his campaign, in particular the notion that parents should be more proactive in determining the content taught in public schools. Conducting tours in suburban neighborhoods and holding “Parents Matter” rallies throughout the state, Youngkin amplified the voices of parents frightened at the prospect of their children being indoctrinated by fringe academic philosophies like “critical race theory.” To date, there exists no credible evidence of critical race theory, a graduate-level legal discipline analyzing the socio-political institutionalization of white supremacy in American society, being incorporated into the standardized curriculum of any Virginia public school district. Despite this, Youngkin’s emphasis on the subject reflected real anxieties among many families in the state. These included many former Biden-supporting swing voters in heavily populated and multiracial counties like Loudon and Virginia Beach enticed by Youngkin’s narrative, especially as he shifted away from primarily highlighting critical race theory and toward the more rhetorically inclusive message of restoring “parental control” over school curricula.
One of the most crucial features of the Youngkin campaign was the deliberate ambiguity related to his association with former president Trump and Trumpism generally. In order to secure the Republican nomination and motivate the base to turn out for him in the general election without isolating moderate, independent, or swing voters (in a state where Trump significantly underperformed in 2020), Youngkin strategically sidestepped issues involving the former president or the 2020 election results to avoid offending either camp. While always regarding Joe Biden as the “legitimate president”, he refused to specifically acknowledge Biden’s victory in the primary and called for the creation of an “Election Integrity Taskforce” to root out “voter fraud” in Virginia. He never outright endorsed claims of mass fraud in the 2020 election, however, and eventually acknowledged the election results as legitimate after winning the nomination. While he was comparably among the least vocally pro-Trump candidates in the Republican primary, he appointed state senator and former opponent Amanda Chase, who has actively advanced debunked conspiracies surrounding the 2020 election, as a campaign surrogate. He described receiving Trump’s endorsement immediately following his primary victory as an “honor”, but soon after began downplaying his association with the former president. He declined to attend a rally where Trump and former White House strategist Steve Bannon were keynote speakers (although he thanked the host for holding it) and called the emcee’s characterization of January 6 as a peaceful rally “weird and wrong.” In essence, his intentionally vague association with Trumpism in the campaign enabled him to both court ardent Trump supporters in the primary and general elections, as well as play the moderate and adequately distance himself from the former president. This combination worked in his favor, with preliminary election data attributing Youngkin’s victory largely to overwhelming turnout in strongly pro-Trump rural counties and suburban swing voters who supported Biden in 2020.
Equally important to Youngkin’s victory were the many missteps and failures of the Terry McAuliffe campaign. Despite his prior success in the 2013 gubernatorial race, when he defied Virginia’s trend of electing a governor of the opposite party as the incumbent president, 2021 McAuliffe was plagued by a significant number of crippling gaffes and miscalculations. Between exaggerating the state’s Covid-19 case numbers on more than one occasion to notoriously proclaiming “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” at a nationally televised debate, he practically handed Youngkin free attack ad content.
Beyond simply putting his foot in his mouth, McAuliffe embodied a major critique many voters have had of Democratic candidates in recent elections: defining themselves by their opponents. With attempts to portray Youngkin as a dedicated Trumpist serving as the centerpiece of his campaign, McAuliffe appeared to only offer Virginians reasons to vote against Glenn Youngkin rather than vote for Terry McAuliffe. This strategy certainly had its merits- perhaps McAuliffe wished to capitalize on Trump’s toxicity in the state without alienating swing voters by appearing too ideological. It may have carried more weight a year ago when Trump was still the chief executive, but much of the electorate appeared to be less interested in the former president and more with kitchen table issues. Running on a platform emphasizing many popular Democratic legislative accomplishments like the statewide minimum wage increase, voting rights expansion, and clean energy initiative may have gone a long way in providing voters an incentive to support him. Instead, he relied solely on his previous record as governor to give insight to how he would lead if elected this time around, causing him to fall prey to the perennial Democratic curse. He depressed turnout among his base, many of whom perceived him as inauthentic and uninspiring, and pushed away key swing voters, who saw a smug, out-of-touch, gratuitous Trump-baiter.
While an intricate analysis of campaign strategies and performance can offer more insight into the election outcome, some dynamics were simply beyond the candidates’ control. In a stroke of luck for Youngkin, Trump was relatively uninvolved in the race. Defying his past tendencies to interject himself into any and every significant election, Trump did little more than formally endorse the Republican, attend two rallies, and take credit for the win. This provided Youngkin with a luxury previous Republican candidates were largely unable to enjoy: the ability to define himself independent of the former president. Without Trump forcing the race to be about him, Youngkin could dictate the narrative and set himself apart when necessary. Additionally, the lack of Trump’s presence made McAuliffe’s ominous warnings of a Trumpian Youngkin leading Virginia appear vacuous and desperate.
It is important to consider that the Virginia gubernatorial race may simply have been a referendum on the present state of the Biden presidency. It is no secret that Biden’s approval rating has been slipping in recent weeks, with the president currently experiencing his lowest favorability thus far. Rising gas prices, supply shortages, congressional gridlock over the long-promised infrastructure and reconciliation packages, as well as concerns over border security and the withdrawal from Afghanistan have hampered the president’s once high popularity. It comes as little surprise then that the outcomes of heavily nationalized races like those in Virginia and New Jersey were at least partially a reflection of increasing discontent with the incumbent administration.
Regardless of the precise causes for Republican victory in Virginia, Democrats must conduct a serious self-autopsy to prevent the loss from serving as a harbinger for the midterms next year. There remains considerable time between now and then for Biden to improve his image and the party to revamp its national strategy. Prospective candidates must also learn not to repeat the mistake of McAuliffe and many before him: run on something, not only against someone. Without the boogeyman of Trump looming over every major Republican candidate, swing voters no longer view Democrats as the reasonable default. They must earn every vote by running meaningful, charismatic, issue-oriented campaigns worth supporting.
Zach Fotiadis is originally from Miami, Florida. He is currently a sophomore in the School of Foreign Service.