Biden's approval ratings: A turn for the worse or simply a bump in the road?

ZACH FOTIADIS: It is no secret that President Biden’s approval ratings have been treading water over the past couple of months. With an average favorability of less than 43%, down from his peak of 57% around the 100 day mark, Biden’s present popularity stands as the second lowest of any president at this point in their administration since the origins of national polling. Despite his approval numbers experiencing a slight improvement in the wake of the bipartisan infrastructure bill’s passage, averages of even the most generous polls have him somewhere in the ballpark of -10% spread. 

Biden’s dive in overall support derives mostly from a loss of confidence in his handling of key areas of governance. According to the Real Clear Politics polling averages, the president currently has disapproval ratings of roughly 56% on the economy, 60% on immigration and 55% on foreign policy, with his least unpopular issue area being a 49% disapproval on his approach to the pandemic.

A variety of limited yet consequential national and international predicaments are largely to blame for these lackluster numbers. The poor perception of Biden’s management of the economy largely reflects the insurgent inflation crisis hitting many Americans' wallets, despite relatively steady GDP growth and a decreasing unemployment rate. With the present rate of inflation the highest in over three decades, and 60% of voters blaming Biden and 52% expecting worse next year, this looming dilemma has taken a toll on the public’s faith in the administration. Additionally, widespread supply shortages resulting from exorbitantly inflated input prices combined with the post-pandemic breakdown of global commerce have left many store shelves bare, further solidifying negative outlooks on the Biden economy. To make matters worse, the record number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border this year has contributed significantly to immigration being the president’s weakest issue. 

Among the most contentious international stories of the year has been the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban takeover. In spite of the decision gaining popular support, a large plurality of Americans rate the execution as “poor,” likely culminating in their disgruntled attitude toward the Biden foreign policy agenda.

Last but not least, the pervasive nature of COVID-19 appears to be yet another drag on the administration’s popular appeal. Going on its two year anniversary this March, the pandemic continues to rage on with the addition of its newest Omicron variant. The virus’ persistence has only inflamed already heightened tensions over public health policy, particularly with regards to indoor mask mandates, international travel bans and the controversial federal vaccine requirement for approximately 100 million workers. Prolonged uncertainty over COVID’s direction has become  an additional burden on Biden’s once widely trusted public image. 

All this considered, one might conclude that the Biden administration has fallen short of its stated mission to win “the battle for the soul of the nation.” 

However, poll numbers can often be deceiving. A lot can change over the course of four years, as a temporary lack of popularity in the first year or two of a president’s term may not necessarily mean game over in the eyes of the American public. 

Case in point: throughout the first two years of the Reagan administration, many pundits across the ideological spectrum were spelling certain doom for the Gipper. 1981 and 1982 saw the twin peaks of the Double Dip Recession induced by an incredibly aggressive federal monetary policy, resulting in Reagan consistently polling as low as 35% by the middle of his first term. Bold predictions were circulating throughout the DC political catacombs and the mainstream press that Reagan was done for, with hopes for reelection being little short of a fantasy. But sure enough, he would go on to win a second term in 1984 by among the largest electoral and popular landslides of the 20th century. 

Other presidents have had similar narratives. Bill Clinton’s approval rating dipped precipitously during his first two years in the wake of a failed push for national healthcare reform and the Republican Revolution in Congress, only to crack 50% shortly thereafter and maintain relatively high favorability throughout the remainder of his presidency. George W. Bush and Barack Obama were both underwater during the last two years of their first terms, the former due to discontent with the Iraq War and the latter the lingering effects of the Great Recession. Both were able to reacquire a majority of popular support in the very last months leading up to their respective reelections. All this to say, presidential approval amongst the American electorate can flip on a dime. 

This phenomenon of course can work in the opposite direction. Jimmy Carter’s 74% approval rating during his first year due to a series of legislative achievements slumped below 50% by 1978 in the midst of stagflation and the Iran Hostage Crisis and was never fully able to bounce back. Gerald Ford lost his sky high popularity within the first several months and struggled to maintain anything above 40% from there on out. Harry Truman assumed the presidency with among the highest approval ratings in modern history, yet by his second year began undulating above and below the 50% line throughout the remainder of his term. 

Only time will tell which prophecy will ring true for Biden. One thing is certain: plenty of time exists between now and the 2022 midterms, and even more until 2024, for the Biden administration to dramatically improve its public standing. The incredibly versatile nature of approval ratings, combined with a tremendous amount of workroom the president has to reenter the American people’s good graces, means that a very different discussion surrounding his popularity could be taking place this time next year.

Zach Fotiadis is a staff writer for On the Record originally from Miami, Florida. He is currently a sophomore in the School of Foreign Service.