New York City: A test of the Democratic coalition
ANDREW MORIN: With open seats for the mayoralty and much of the city council, this year’s upcoming elections in New York City are set to be an early test for the left wing of the Democratic Party under the Biden administration. By far the largest city in the United States and among the more diverse, New York is home to national progressive stars like Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jamaal Bowman. Yet despite this favorable terrain, left-wing groups still seem to be struggling.
The races at stake reflect two distinct strategies for the Democratic Party’s left flank. The first is big and bold, unifying behind a candidate and striking to win political power from the top. Bernie Sanders notably ran in the mould in 2016, directly challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democrat’s Presidential nomination. It has also been attempted before in New York, perhaps most notably with actress Cynthia Nixon’s 2018 primary challenge to incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo. The second strategy is slower, relying less on expensive, publicized bids. It instead involves running leaner, more targeted campaigns closer to the ground. Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 primary win, for example, relied heavily on local retail politics to defeat Joe Crowly, a legislatively powerful but not exceptionally visible longtime representative in his New York district.
During the recent resurgence of the progressive left in New York (and the country), this second strategy has generally proved more successful. In 2018, as Cuomo beat back Nixon by a landslide of 30 points, Julia Salazar, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), defeated a Democratic incumbent for a State Senate seat in Brooklyn while Ocasio-Cortez won her Queens seat. The next year, progressive Tiffany Cabán came within 60 votes of winning the Queens District Attorney race, a highly-watched race, but for a less visible office. Coordinating these campaigns are a variety of groups from the DSA to the Working Families party, many of which have strong on-the-ground experiences that translate better to more local races.
This year’s elections seem primed to test both strategies. On one hand, a crowded field has emerged to succeed generally unpopular Mayor Bill de Blasio after eight years in office, hoping to lead the city’s government from Gracie Mansion. On the other, all 51 seats of the city council are up for election, with 35 open seats and competitive primaries in most of the rest. With Democrats almost assured of holding both the mayorship and the council, this summer’s primaries will effectively decide the next years of city governance in the largest metropolitan area in the country.
Yet there are worrying signs for progressives across the board. In the mayoral race, while there are several progressives running, their prospects seem mixed. Scott Stringer, the incumbent city comptroller who has worked the past few years to establish his progressive bona fides, entered the race last year as an expected frontrunner but has recently seen his organized support collapse in the wake of sexual assault allegations. Dianne Morales, a housing and education advocate who has gained significant traction on the left continues to languish, polling in the single digits while Maya Wiley, a former de Blasio’s administration official who has since distanced herself from the mayor, has also not managed to break out.
Instead, the top of the field is dominated by decidedly less progressive figures. At the top is Andrew Yang, the former presidential candidate whose unique policy proposals round out a generally less progressive profile. Beyond Yang, the picture is even worse for progressives. From Eric Adams, Brooklyn Borough President and a former police officer, who has consistently focused on rising crime and the need for expanded policing to Raymond McGuire, a former Citigroup executive, much more moderate candidates have stood out in recent polling.
To explain this apparent weakness, the many progressives point to the second strategy: focusing on smaller, more local races. Here, organizations like DSA argue they can better focus their limited resources, targeting specifically weak incumbents or seats in neighborhoods where they can win. For example, while uninvolved in the mayoral race, DSA has endorsed a slate of six candidates, who have pledged to form a socialist caucus should they win. The Working Families party, while endorsing in the mayoral race, has also picked candidates in 22 council districts. This plan aims at a dual goal of slowly strengthening progressive and left-wing within city government and building a stronger bench to later seek higher offices.
This plan, while more likely to succeed (and with a proven track record), still has downsides. Focusing on a small group will by definition limit their impact, even in a best-case electoral scenario, where progressives might still struggle to dominate the council. Similarly, if they continually fail to build a broader coalition big enough to secure larger races, whether it across the city, state, or country, they will stay limited to these smaller offices: important, but not in a position to institute their ambitious policy agenda. Furthermore, a string of special elections this year have not yet yielded positive results. Although DSA has not endorsed any candidates in the special election held so far, the Working Families Party has, to generally poor results.
This year’s elections in New York (and many other cities from Seattle to Atlanta) will prove a critical testing ground for the Democratic coalition. In the absence of Donald Trump as a polarizing common enemy, the left and moderate wings of the party have continued to coexist in the opening months of the Biden administration. The primaries this summer will reveal much more about the relative strength of various sections of the party and the dynamics that will play out over the next four years.
Andrew Morin is a freshman in the SFS from New York with an interest in Congressional politics and foreign policy.