The Midterms: Democrats Go All-in on Abortion
Photo Credit: Victoria Pickering/Flickr
ARJUN NARAYAN: On Tuesday, October 25th, Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz faced a critical moment. In the midst of one of the most closely contested races in this year’s midterm elections, the former daytime television star and physician was faced with a hot-button question regarding abortion. When asked whether he would support a federal abortion ban, Oz replied with swift disapproval, but took a unique stance on the issue that has faced national backlash.
In the days since, his opposing candidate, John Fetterman, has jumped upon this opportunity. Fetterman’s campaign has characterized Oz as an overbearing amateur politician who wants to involve the government in one’s individual healthcare choice.
This approach is emblematic of a larger Democratic strategy in the rapidly approaching midterms. With a conservative majority on the nation’s highest court, the Supreme Court stripped away the federal protections for abortion in the decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization earlier this year. Amid the expected outrage from large swaths of the nation’s population, the Democratic party seized the opportunity to leverage the fervor into voter turnout. Democratic spending on abortion-relating advertising has quickly eclipsed $100 million since early September, demonstrating a financial commitment toward amplifying pro-choice messaging. Easily eclipsing any other issue in advertising, the Democrats have pinned their hopes on the abortion issue resonating with Americans as they head to the polls, particularly in battleground states.
While debates have forced Republican candidates like Oz and Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters to answer to the issue, large-scale messaging by Republicans has avoided abortion by in large. However, in September, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that a Republican majority in Congress would institute a ban for abortion nationwide. Not only was this faced with disdain from political figures and the public, this created public pressure on Republican candidates across the country to answer to their thoughts on such a policy. This creates an interesting dilemma for Republican candidates. While support for “pro-life” policies could encourage support among the Republican base, it could certainly be a deterrent to voters unsure of their party of choice this election cycle, particularly among young and suburban populations.
With this in mind, it certainly calls into question whether the Democratic emphasis on abortion will be salient enough with voters to force a sufficient turnout to fight back against the early momentum the Republicans possessed in the midterm race. A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 44 percent of adult women are more motivated to vote in this election than ever before, with the Dobbs decision being the main bellringer behind this motivation. Promisingly for the Democrats, voter turnout already has materialized on the state level, with Kansas voters issued a resounding “no” against an abortion ban in a referendum late in the summer. Even in a red state like the Sunflower State, voters were inflamed by the Dobbs decision and went to the polls to voice their concern. Indeed, Kansas saw a positive shock in female voter registration following Dobbs, a trend emblematic of the outrage caused by the decision. With this in mind, it is certainly possible that a similar turnout occurs across the country in the midterms, with female voters leading the charge to vote against candidates who stand against efforts to restore the federal right to abortion.
While abortion is likely to drive turnout, it will not be the only determinant that drives the success of either party in this election. As with previous elections, a recent ABC News poll found that the economy and inflation, in particular, stand to be the most important issue to voters, consistent across Democrats, Republicans and independents. After all, while abortion’s legality has been debated for decades with much intensity, improving the economy is an issue that all Americans can agree is hugely important. For this exact reason, Republican candidates have been vocal surrounding the lack of immediate solutions surrounding inflation and growing signs of a coming recession. Any American can see the impact on their balance sheet with higher prices at the gas station, creating a message that Republican candidates can advertise to any voter.
Going all-in on abortion rights could be a strategy that provides Democrats the necessary boost in turnout to propel their battleground races in the Senate and stymie a resounding Republican takeover of the House. In close races, it could be the difference between a blue or a red pickup. While campaigns like John Fetterman’s will pounce on their opponent’s view on abortion rights, it is important to not view these issues in a vacuum—it may be a collection of issues that swings this election.
Arjun Narayan is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a sophomore in the School of Health studying Healthcare Management and Policy. Arjun is particularly interested in health policy, economics, and US foreign affairs.