An Asian NATO: Yes, no, or not now?

Photo via Reuters

ANAGHA CHAKRAVARTIA: “Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow,” asserts Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. 

Ishiba recently emphasized his support and proposal for the idea of an Asian NATO to ensure collective security in the region. Does Asia face major threats or a similar fate as Ukraine? Does the region need a NATO-like defense alliance? Is the idea feasible or farfetched? 

On Friday Sept. 27, Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was elected by Parliament to replace current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Ishiba represents the Liberal Democratic Party. He took office on Tuesday, Oct. 1 and began to form his Cabinet “with a strong emphasis on defense and security.” 

Among the key claims made by Ishiba since being elected is his wish to form a “NATO-like alliance” in the region: an Asian NATO. He laid out his plan to a Washington D.C. based think-tank the Hudson Institute a few days prior to his election. Ishiba stated that there is a need in Asia for a collective self-defense system like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

Ishiba’s priority with this new security alliance is to deter China, counter the nuclear powers and alliance in the region, continue to strengthen and rebalance Japan’s ties with the US and other allies and preserve regional security in the Indo Pacific. So far, it seems that this NATO-like alliance would synthesize the “existing diplomatic and security pacts,” in the region which includes the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic security forum covering Japan, India, US and Australia, and AUKUS, a partnership covering Australia, United Kingdom and United States for defense cooperation.

One major factor in Ishiba’s decision to support an Asian NATO are security concerns in today’s geopolitical environment with the war between Russia and Ukraine and the New Cold War. Ishiba also has concerns about cooperation between Russia and North Korea—both of which have nuclear weapons. Ishiba has even alluded that this new security alliance could be involved in nuclear weapons sharing with the United States.

Japan has been actively involved in the QUAD, working closely with the US and its allies on defense and deterrence. Their goal is to maintain “peace and stability in the Indo Pacific.”

In the US, officials such as national security adviser Jake Sullivan have maintained that “Washington is not attempting to create a NATO in the Indo Pacific.” Furthermore, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific Daniel Kritenbrink has already deemed the Asian NATO idea as “hasty.” The US has been paying close attention to the Indo-Pacific region as a “priority theater” amidst the strategic power competition between the US and China. Japan is a key ally to the US due to its advanced military, economy and ongoing bilateral cooperation on defense, cybersecurity, and in efforts revolving around the QUAD. 

India, a major player in the Indo Pacific and embroiled in longtime tensions with China, has rejected Japan’s suggestion. India has generally practiced non-alignment and more recently has been practicing strategic autonomy. On the topic of an Asian NATO, India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar emphasized that “India has never been a treaty ally of another country.” Regardless, India remains involved in security efforts including with the QUAD and has bolstered defense cooperation with the US. They have also increased dialogue and diplomatic collaboration with the regional political and economic union Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and with various countries in the region, such as the Philippines, to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. 

The idea of an Asian NATO is unlikely to come to fruition, at least in the short term. As evident by ASEAN’s policies, actions, and the different yet interdependent nature of relations between each of the Southeast Asian nations and China, there is a “lack of unity.” However, the ongoing security efforts and partnerships in the Indo Pacific can continue to be strengthened.

A few uncertainties remain. It seems unlikely that if there were to be an Asian NATO, China would be included. But what could be the stakes of such a decision—as there has already been increased hostility in the region particularly in the disputed South China sea? Furthermore, how would ASEAN interact with this more security focused alliance? ASEAN has and continues to view Japan as a “reliable trading and economic partner,” rather than a security and military ally. 

Coverage from The Japan Times emphasizes that Ishiba’s idea “has faced an outpouring of criticism.” The Prime Minister has admitted that such an alliance cannot form immediately. Regardless of the future of this Asian NATO concept, Japan is likely to continue to play a major role in preserving the regional security and geopolitical environment in the Indo Pacific through closer cooperation with strategic allies and bolstering ongoing efforts.

Anagha Chakravarti is a staff writer for On the Record. She is from Delhi, India and grew up in Manila, Philippines. She is a senior in the School of Foreign Service, majoring in International Politics, minoring in International Development, and completing a certificate in European Studies.