How Will the Wars in Gaza and Ukraine Affect the US Election

Photo via Reuters

ADITHYA KASHYAP: Richard Nixon once said, “You can’t have a strong foreign policy without having a strong domestic policy, and you can’t have a strong domestic policy without a strong foreign policy.” 

Nixon’s statement has more relevance than ever especially given the political climate of this year’s election - which is being described as “the most important in our history.” Thus, given the importance many voters have ascribed to the two major wars facing the US and the world, we must understand how the two main candidates in this election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, seek to approach them.

Among the many foreign policy areas of interest, it has become increasingly clear that the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are significant to the American people. This is because, in addition to America’s deep involvement in both, the two main parties have taken starkly diverging positions.

The war in Ukraine, a conflict that has ravaged the heartlands of Eastern Europe for well over two years, has led to the deaths of over 11,000 civilians and hundreds of thousands of soldiers. In the United States, this war has created a deep ideological divide among Republicans and Democrats - seen most saliently by their fielded candidates. 

Vice President Harris has stated she “will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.” With a new 8 billion dollar aid package to Ukraine, she has been explicit about her “unwavering” support to Ukraine, committing fully to the current Biden administration’s policy of helping Ukraine win the war. While the specifics of how this victory will come about are less clear, a White House under Harris would be committed to ending the war, leaving Ukraine in a strong and secure position, territorially and militarily. As under Biden, Harris would do so by bolstering NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies toward a secure Eastern Europe.

Trump, on the other hand, has been unabashed about his willingness to end aid to Ukraine, declaring that if elected he would end the war “in 24 hours.” This was also echoed by his Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance, who has said that “there is frankly no good reason that aid from the U.S. should be needed.” The Republican ticket has broadly expressed deep skepticism of NATO, with Trump previously stating he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” concerning countries that do not meet their defense targets.

The Harris campaign has exploited this, running ads in key battleground states especially targeting Americans of Eastern European descent, of whom there are considerable numbers in important swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump intends to attract voters who are against aid to Ukraine, with many of these voters being frustrated about funding a foreign war.

An area in which both candidates agree, to some extent, is their stances on the war in Gaza. A Harris administration, as Biden’s has done so far, would be a firm supporter of Israel’s right to defend itself in the war. While Harris, perhaps more than Biden, has called for a swift end to the war and has sympathized more with the plight of the Palestinian people, it is unlikely she will depart from the current administration’s commitment to Israel. Instead, she would be more likely to pressure Israel, as is currently taking place, through the means of threatening an end to aid if more is not done to help Palestinians monetarily. Harris would also work towards a two-state solution in US efforts to end hostilities.

Trump, a fervent supporter of Israel, has also called for a completion of the war in Gaza, stating that he will “get that settled and fast.” The former president has had a long history of support for Israel, evidenced by his actions of shifting the Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem and America’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. While Trump, like Harris, has voiced an end to hostilities, he has often viewed this as ensuring that Israel gets a “victory,” and less with regards to a ceasefire.

Despite its efforts to persuade Israel to end the war swiftly, the current Biden-Harris administration has been deeply criticized by many in the country, especially Arab Americans, who view Gaza as the most important issue. This has had a remarkable effect, with new polls showing that there is an even split between Harris and Trump as president. 

The Trump campaign has benefitted from the endorsement of the only Muslim-run city’s mayor. This has been interpreted by many as a major signal of Arab American apathy toward the current administration’s handling of the conflict, which may well affect key swing states like Michigan. 

While Harris leads by a substantial margin of +36 over Trump among American Jews, these numbers represent the narrowest margin of victory among this important demographic since 1988. Trends like this represent a growing trend among Jews of a distrust of the current government, with worries of growing antisemitism since Oct. 7.

The American people’s views on these two conflicts hark to a broader significance of foreign policy as a whole, informing their views of the candidates. In a country where foreign policy is often not the main issue for the vast majority of voters, a strong foreign policy is still seen as important, especially in projecting American strength.

How significant will the candidates’ views on these two wars be for voters? While we can only wait and see, one cannot understate their importance to not just the US, but the entire world. After all: When America sneezes, the world catches a cold!

Adithya Kashyap is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a freshman planning to study Government and Economics in the College of Arts and Sciences. He is from Chennai, India.