One Michigan Election Could Shift the Senate

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Aubrey Butterfield : As the Nov. 5 presidential election approaches, America continues to watch Michigan - the Great Lakes swing state. While the election results are in the hands of swing state voters, another race is worth highlighting as well: the Michigan U.S. Senate race.

The 2022 U.S. Senate elections resulted in a 51-49 divide, with a Democrat majority (Democrats hold 48 seats, with the other 3 held by Independents typically voting with the party) . In 2024, 34 seats are up for election, including 12 battleground elections. The Michigan U.S. Senate race falls into this category.

Following former Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow’s retirement announcement in January 2023, pressure has been put on the open seat, revealing candidates Elissa Slotkin (D) and Mike Rodgers (R).

Slotkin is the current congressional representative of Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, serving since 2023. A Cornell and Columbia alum, Slotkin’s candidacy follows over a decade-long career in national security, working as an intelligence analyst at the CIA, holding a senior position in the Pentagon, and serving as an acting assistant secretary of defense. Additionally, Slotkin has held positions in her career under both President Bush and President Obama. 

Rodgers has served in the Michigan State Senate and as a congressional representative from Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, totaling 20 years of elected public service. A graduate of Albion College, Rodgers has spent time as a lieutenant in the U.S. Army and special agent in the FBI. During his time in Congress, he served as Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Following his departure from Congress, Rodgers entered the private sector.

Democrats haven’t lost a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since 1994. However, there hasn’t been an open seat in Michigan in a decade. Notoriously a swing state, the tossup nature of Michigan applies to not only the presidential race but the Senate as well. Michigan’s results could have major outcomes on party control.

The upper chamber is likely to change control, with Republicans predicted to clinch 13 of the 34 seats, landing a 51-49 control. Michigan could very well ensure the flip: CNN has ranked Michigan’s race as fourth most likely to flip in 2024.

As of Sept. 29, polls have Rep. Slotkin (D) ahead by 4.6 points. Despite this, The Cook Political Report ranks Michigan’s open seat as one of two toss-up elections. 270towin and The Hill have Michigan as leaning Democratic. 

Polls are tight, and Michigan’s outcome is regarded as up-in-the-air, similar to its status in the presidential election. As the Senate races flip, it is integral for the Democratic party to hold the Great Lakes state for a chance to maintain control of the upper chamber. 

Aubrey Butterfield (she/her) is a staff writer for On The Record. She is a freshman in the College of Arts and Sciences currently undeclared, interested in studying Government and Journalism. She is originally from Southgate, Michigan.