What Trump’s China policy means for the US and the Indo-Pacific

Photo via Reuters

ADITHYA KASHYAP: On Nov. 5, former president Donald Trump emerged victorious from the hard-fought election of 2024. While the extent of Trump’s victory was certainly a surprise to many Americans, sweeping all of the 7 swing states, the win has been a greater shock for the rest of the world necessitating adaptation to the new administration — especially with regard to the overhaul Trump seeks of the status quo of America’s foreign relations and alliances. 

Perhaps the most anticipated of these has been his stance on China, which has long been recognized by both the people and government officials as the US’s greatest rival. This intensity was certainly seen during Trump’s first term when many believed that he had begun a “trade war” with China. In March of 2018, the “Trump tariffs” began to hit China, an economic retaliation for the perceived theft of intellectual and technological property. Furthermore, the sentiment was founded on the “ripping off” of the US partly due to the trade imbalance between the two countries. Circumstances began to take a geopolitical turn when cabinet members like Mike Pompeo underscored the encroachments in the South China Sea and repressions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong.

However, Trump’s reentry into the White House is likely to revise ties with the country to be harsher. This term, perhaps significantly more than the last, will be characterized by an even more “hawkish” view of China. These sentiments were first revealed in the selection of Trump’s cabinet members, many of whom have held suspicion of the Asian Dragon and have urged a more combative approach to the threat it poses to the US. 

Mike Waltz, tapped by the incoming administration to be the National Security Adviser, is known for his hawkish views on China, seeing the competition with the United States as being inherently ideological in nature. Similarly, Marco Rubio, who was nominated to be the new Secretary of State, has been among the Senate’s fiercest critics of China and has long called for a decisive approach to the country.

Additionally, on Nov. 25, Trump announced his administration would be levying even more costly tariffs on China of up to a 10% increase, an action to counter the “crime and drugs” as well as illegal immigration at the Southern U.S Border. These changes would signify an unrelenting approach toward the second-largest economy, surpassing what was witnessed during the Biden administration.

This confrontational approach toward China is certain to have both economic and geopolitical impact on the US and the rest of the world, especially when coupled with Trump’s previous policies.

New tariffs would likely make the US an unfavorable partner for many Chinese manufacturers, given the likelihood of rising costs to businesses and a more hostile market. The percentage of their exports to the US has already been on a decline  while overall exports are forecasted to be at an all-time high. Thus, Chinese firms are likely to divert from the country and seek more hospitable economies. 

Particularly given the breadth of industry that will be affected by these new tariffs, in contrast to the targeted efforts of the Biden administration on microchips and autonomous vehicles, there may be questions of whether American businesses would suffer with an unrelenting approach toward trade with China. However, many observers argue this as another instance of the “Trump threat,” where the president-elect uses his willingness to take action to extract concessions from the opposing party.

Meanwhile, Trump’s victory will likely embolden countries in the Indo-Pacific, many of whom have their conflicts with the growing Chinese hegemon. The Philippines and Vietnam, both being affected by encroachments by China in the South China Sea, are likely to cooperate at a greater level with the US, providing confidence that their economic ties will remain intact from the Trump Tariffs as well as the provision of security assurances. Other countries like India, which has long had a strained relationship with Beijing, will benefit from an approach from an uncompromising view from Trump toward China. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had a warm relationship with Trump since his first term and has been optimistic about coordination between Washington and New Delhi in defense, technology, and space.

As with most things with the former president, the foreseeable future of relations with China and its effects on the rest of the world are unclear and unpredictable. It is clear that Trump is willing to go to drastic lengths to further his America-First outlook and US power, one best described by his much-repeated motto, “Peace through strength.” The US’s relationship with China, however, bodes to be anything but peaceful.

Adithya Kashyap is a staff writer for On the Record. He is a freshman planning to study Government and Economics in the College of Arts and Sciences. He is from Chennai, India.