Pennsylvania: It really is the Keystone State
Photo via Reuters
CHRISTINA TUCHOLSKI: Pennsylvania is one of the states that gathers enormous traction during election season - specifically during the presidential election season. Why? It’s a swing state.
And although it’s a swing state, Pennsylvania has only voted for a Republican candidate once since electing George H. W. Bush in 1988. Who did the state elect that one time? Donald Trump.
Considering the upcoming 2024 election, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes (tied for the fifth most in the country), and Donald Trump’s newest presidential attempt, its status as a swing state becomes more important than ever.
Pennsylvania voters list “crime and the economy” as two of their highest priority issues when considering who to vote for. Looking at recent polls, Republicans tend to be winning in these areas. However, during the 2022 midterms, Democrat John Fetterman won an open Senate seat while Gov. Josh Shapiro won the governorship, also a Democrat. How can we consider the results of the midterm elections in light of recent polls and Trump’s 2016 victory in the state?
Given the rhetoric around the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election, one may think the Democrat victories are because of the birthplace of these candidates, but when researched further, this seems incorrect. Gov. Josh Shapiro has served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives since 2004, while opponent Doug Mastriano moved to Pennsylvania in 2012. While Mastriano may have moved to Pennsylvania eight years later, it was still years before the election.
John Fetterman was born and raised in Pennsylvania while Mehmet Oz (the opposing candidate for the Pennsylvania Senate Seat), is from New Jersey. Oz went to school, was married, and had two children in Pennsylvania. Both have strong connections to the state.
While President Joe Biden is from Pennsylvania, he was a Senator in Delaware for years. His birthplace likely benefitted him in the election, especially considering he won his home county, but was it significant enough to help him win the state, or was it for other reasons?
Although the midterms may not have proven the benefit of a candidate's birthplace, when looking at the entire country, there may be an answer. The 2022 midterms were the first elections following the overturn of Roe v. Wade, a case that shook the nation. For suburban women, who play a major role in determining the winners of swing states, abortion is their number one issue.
In 2022, Republicans were expecting a “red wave” to take the House and Senate, while they gained a majority in the House, it was not nearly the number they had expected. Polls conducted by Politico have indicated that women, minority groups, and young voters have begun to vote blue in increasing numbers because of Roe’s overturning. Considering the discourse regarding abortion rights has affected elections across the country, it would be no surprise if the same could be said for Pennsylvania, especially since the issue tends to sway on-the-fence voters.
Ultimately it is difficult to predict the outcome of the 2024 election in Pennsylvania because there does not seem to be a clear reason why voters here vote the way they do; however, it seems that concerns about abortion rights may be an issue that could determine turnout in such a key swing state.
As the two candidates continue to campaign in Pennsylvania with hopes of winning the swing state, it is a reminder that Pennsylvania voters may decide the election in a matter of months.
Christiana is a Staff Writer of On The Record. She is a freshman in the College studying Government. Christiana enjoys skiing and exploring new coffee shops in her free time.