On The Record’s Guide to the 2025 Elections

Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears faces off against former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. Photos via the Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia & Wikimedia Commons (taken by Ezra Deutsch-Feldman)

PRESTON HETRICK: After just completing a presidential election season, American voters are back at it again this Tuesday to elect key offices across the country. In this article, we’ll outline some of the key races taking place in states such as Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and California. 

Two states are holding gubernatorial elections this November: Virginia and New Jersey. In Virginia, Republicans are defending the seat after Glenn Youngkin’s shock victory in 2021, with their nominee being current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl-Seares. She faces former Representative Abigail Spanberger, who resigned from Congress to run for this seat, with this race being the first time two female candidates have faced off for the governorship in Virginia. Spanberger is the heavy favorite to flip this seat, mainly due to negative backlash to the Trump administration for government downsizing, which is especially important in Northern Virginia, a region with so many government workers. Even without President Trump’s attempts to downsize the government, the race would still be extremely difficult for Republicans to win, seeing that the state voted for Kamala Harris by nearly 6% in 2024. Spanberger’s momentum has also helped Democrats down the ballot, with State Senator Ghazala Hashmi as the favorite for the Lieutenant Governor's race, while Democrats are expected to expand their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. After flipping the chamber in 2023, Democrats enjoy just a 2-seat majority, but should gain at least 6 seats; definitely keep an eye out on Districts 22, 30, 41, 57, 64, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 82, 86 and 89. However, the Attorney General race has been shaken up after Democrat Jay Jones was found to have sent violent text messages to the then-Republican Speaker of the State House. Jones is facing incumbent Republican Jason Miyares, and since the controversy, the polls have shown the race to be a toss-up. Spanberger seems to be doing well enough that she may carry Jones over the line, but it’ll be tight. Most polls are within the margin of error, but Jones hasn’t taken as much of a hit as you’d expect. 

In New Jersey, Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill holds about a 4-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli for the governor's seat. This race is viewed as a flashpoint to see where the Democratic brand stands in the state, after it trended nearly 10% to the right in 2024, and after Ciattarelli nearly pulled off an unforeseen upset in the 2021 gubernatorial race, losing only by three points in a state that Biden won by 16 points the year prior. The New York City suburbs will be the key counties to watch to see where this trend goes. A similar story is taking place with the General Assembly races, but Republicans aren’t expected to make many gains. The 4th, 8th, and 21st Districts are the ones to watch for potential flips, but all eyes in the state will be focused on who wins the keys to the governor’s mansion

Other statewide elections are happening in Georgia and Pennsylvania. In Georgia, elections to the Public Service Commission are finally occurring after being delayed for four years due to lawsuits about the electoral system. Republican incumbents Tim Echols and Fitz Johnson face Democrats Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, respectively, with polling indicating that these races are a toss-up. In Pennsylvania, three Democratic Supreme Court justices are facing a retention election, where voters simply choose “yes,” or “no” if they want them to keep their seats. Justices rarely lose these, but Republicans have ramped up spending in this race to try to take them down and put the court in flux, along with ending Democratic control. There are also two elections occurring in lower statewide courts across Pennsylvania, and a multitude of local judges are up. 

Additionally, special state legislative elections are occurring in a lot of states, and there are some competitive seats at play. After a judge in Mississippi ruled that the state legislative districts unfairly diluted black voters, 14 districts in the state are holding an election this November. Three of them, the 2nd and 45th Senate Districts and the 22nd House district, should flip to Democratic control, given their new boundaries. The following districts are all up for election due to the death or resignation of the incumbent and have the potential to flip to the opposite party. In New Hampshire’s Coos County’s 5th House District, Democrats are attempting a comeback in a district they lost in 2024 by about 2%. New York’s 115th House District saw incumbent Democrat Billy Jones win unopposed in 2024, even as Trump carried this district by a point. Without Jones, it should be a toss-up, and it is difficult to predict. Earlier this year, a similar case happened in the state, where a conservative Democratic incumbent in a Trump district died, but Democrats handily defended it, which should give them some hope. And then in Washington’s 5th and 26th Senate Districts, Democrats are trying to defend two swing districts where they only won by 4% and 2% respectively, in 2024. Democrats had a strong showing in the primary here, but the margin this Tuesday will be narrow. Democrats nationally have been doing extremely well in special state legislative elections this year, flipping three seats so far and overperforming Harris’s margin by double digits in pretty much every case. None of these elections have the potential to flip any state chambers and will just help in narrowing the margin for 2026. 

In California, voters will decide whether or not to approve Proposition 50, which would institute a new map for California’s House districts until new maps are drawn after the 2030 census. Created in response to the mid-decade Texas gerrymander, which should net the GOP 5 House seats, Proposition 50 would almost guarantee 3 Democratic flips. Additionally, it takes 8 Democratic-held competitive districts and makes them less competitive, and takes two Republican districts and makes them into toss-ups. Voters are expected to approve the map, but not by any overwhelming margin. Another important ballot measure is taking place in Maine. Question 1 would require photo ID to vote, but also massively change the state’s absentee ballot process. It would limit municipalities to one voter drop-box, remove the ability to request a ballot over the phone, end the automatic mailing of ballots to those 65 and older, and prohibit municipalities from including pre-paid postage on ballots. It’s thus been a controversial issue in Maine, and the one poll that has been done for the question shows the “No” vote leading by 1%.

On the more local side, multiple counties are holding key elections for county offices. The competitive ones are all mainly taking place in New York and Pennsylvania. In Rensselaer County, incumbent Republican Executive Steven McLaughlin faces Democrat Tiffani Silverman. County Executives serve as the chief executive in counties across many states, and thus hold a lot of power in county-level projects and laws. They impact residents on a day-to-day basis with services like road construction, housing projects, and local taxes, and thus are an essential office. Rensselaer County voted for Kamala Harris by about 2% in 2024, so this race is definitely one to watch for a potential flip. The battleground county in New York this year is Nassau County on Long Island. After flipping and voting for Trump by 4% in 2024, the local GOP is fighting to keep its dominance of county offices. Incumbent Executive Bruce Blakeman faces legislator Seth Koslow, and the county legislature could flip due to new districts being drawn after a lawsuit. Democrats are hoping to get momentum to flip these races from the District Attorney’s race, where controversial incumbent Anne Donnelly is facing off against prosecutor Nicole Aloise. Most of the major police unions in the county have refused to endorse Donnelly, which points to the fact that she may be poised to lose reelection. In Pennsylvania, three swing counties are hosting competitive County Executive races: Erie, which voted for Trump by 1%, Lehigh, which voted for Harris by 3%, and Northampton, which voted for Trump by 2%. Additionally, Bucks County, which flipped and voted for Trump by a margin of 291 votes, is hosting competitive races for District Attorney and Sheriff. 

Major cities are also hosting municipal elections this year. Back in Virginia, two independent cities are hosting competitive races for row offices. In Virginia Beach, incumbent Republican District Attorney Colin Stolle is being challenged by Democrat Suzanne Richmond, who is being propped up by other progressive DAs across the state. Additionally, in neighboring Chesapeake, the sheriff’s race has taken an interesting turn. The incumbent Republican Sheriff, Dave Rosado, lost the GOP primary and is now running a write-in campaign. To make matters more complicated, Rosado has been endorsed by the local  Democratic Party. Rosado’s support for ICE involvement and proclaiming his office as “MAGA” during the primary makes this endorsement controversial. Both races in Virginia should be competitive in these swing cities. In the Twin Cities, both incumbent mayors are facing competitive reelection bids. In St. Paul, Melvin Carter III is being challenged by progressive state Representative Kaohly Her. In Minneapolis, moderate Democrat Jacob Frey is being challenged by progressive state Senator Omar Fateh. Fateh initially received the endorsement of the local Democratic Party, which later rescinded it after alleged issues with voting in the decision. This race should be highly competitive, and harkens back to the large rift between progressives and moderates in the city since George Floyd. 

The same is true in Seattle, where incumbent Bruce Herrell is largely viewed as the underdog against progressive Katie Wilson. Additionally, Republican Ann Davison, who won an upset victory to become the city's District Attorney, seems to be in a great position to lose her seat. This trend continued in Buffalo, where the incumbent lost in the primary to a progressive challenger, and is obviously most featured in New York City. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani seems well-positioned to win the mayor’s seat against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. This points to a potential new, more progressive path for the Democratic Party. Additionally, watch the mayoral races in Connecticut, Binghamton, NY, Charlotte, NC, and Columbia, SC, as they all have the potential to be quite close on Election Night. 

This is a brief sample of the flurry of races that will be decided this Tuesday, November 4, and it’s important that if you have elections on the ballot, to vote! This off-year election will have significantly less turnout than a midterm or presidential election, so your voice matters just that much more. These elections should provide a good insight into where the state of the country is politically, and will be interesting to watch. 

Preston Hetrick is a freshman majoring in History and minoring in Journalism from Morgantown, West Virginia. He is interested in elections across the country, great and small.