What Spanberger’s Win Means for the Democrats

Photo via Anushka Tadikonda

MAX CLAPHAM: The Democrats have reclaimed the keys to the Virginia governors’ mansion, as Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears last Tuesday. Polls had been suggesting a Spanberger win, but her 14.4% margin of victory exceeded even the most Democrat-friendly polls. Alongside Democratic wins in New Jersey, New York City and California, the Nov. 4 elections have been hailed as a massive triumph for the party.

Three days prior to the election, yours truly attended one of Spanberger’s final campaign events in Northern Virginia, hoping to find out which issues drive Democrats to turn out in an off-year election. The resulting impression from these interviews was of a party still driven almost solely by opposition to President Trump, with most voters declining to articulate strong policy priorities beyond this.

Mara Stengler, a Democrat from Alexandria, confided that she had always been friends with Republicans, until Trump’s decision to run in 2016 changed the landscape for her: “We’re not friends anymore”, she said of her former Republican acquaintances, “I couldn’t really understand or wrap my head around why they supported him.” Trump’s 2016 run was not just a galvanising event for Democrats, however: one self-described “Anti-MAGA Republican,” who declined to speak on the record due to his employment by the federal government, described how he had been driven to support Democratic candidates because of the Trumpification of the Republican party. Giving credit to Spanberger and her reputation as a bipartisan moderate, he remarked that “This is the first election in a long time where I haven’t had to hold my nose to vote for a Democrat.” Many echoed this praise of Spanberger, citing her support for expanding background checks for gun purchases and lowering drug costs. Conversely, there were harsh words for Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, with one voter branding her a “uniquely terrible candidate”. 

The common thread through every response, however, was the current occupant of the White House, across the Potomac. Despite this being a state-level election, Virginia’s gubernatorial race was perceived as an opportunity to elect a Democrat who might provide “insulation from the horrible policies coming from the Trump administration”, as one voter put it, something that they did not trust either incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin or Earle-Sears to do. 

Following these interviews, your correspondent heard the addresses of Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, before Spanberger gave her standard stump speech to the crowd. Whilst Spanberger stuck to a local message focused on affordability, Kaine and Warner were fixated on the administration in Washington. Kaine began by highlighting the failure of Virginia’s incumbentRepublican Attorney General to sue the federal government for suspending SNAP benefits. Soon, though, his speech had pivoted to a criticism of Trump’s foreign policy and its alienation of foreign allies. Warner echoed this message, joking that the administration had declared: “Here’s the plan. Russia is our friend, and Canada’s the enemy,” eliciting a roar of laughter from the crowd. 

These Trump-focused speeches certainly played well in a room full of Democrats, but whether this was the priority of Virginians in general is another question altogether; exit polling from NBC News indicates that the economy was the top priority of 48% of Virginia voters. Of those who ranked the economy as most important, 63% voted for Spanberger, compared to her overall vote share of 57%. Healthcare was another high priority issue, ranked first for 21% of voters. This group was won even more decisively by Spanberger, who garnered 81% of their votes, likely due to frustration with congressional Republicans’ opposition to the extension of ACA subsidies that has prolonged the current government shutdown. 

Democrats’ decisive lead on these two issues suggests they have a case to make to the country that Republicans have failed in their promise to address affordability. With Trump out of the picture in 2028, Democrats will have to move beyond criticism of the president and find a way to articulate an alternative policy agenda that addresses the financial concerns of Americans. With her focus on improving the affordability of healthcare, housing and energy, Spanberger has shown that Democrats can win decisively if they campaign on basic economic issues. 

During this period of a Republican trifecta in Washington, Democrats are despairing at the direction of their party. If they are seeking guidance as to their future political strategy, they would do well to look to Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.

Max Clapham ‘29 is a freshman planning to study International Politics in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. He is from London, United Kingdom.