Diplomacy or Development? An Unstable Ceasefire and Competing Visions for Gaza’s Future

Photo via Reuters

VILDA WESTH BLANC: For the first time in over a year, the guns in Gaza have fallen silent—but for how long?

A fragile ceasefire has taken hold between Israel and Hamas, offering a brief respite from war without resolving the deep-rooted tensions that fuel the conflict. Meanwhile, a bold and controversial proposal from President Trump has sent shockwaves through the international community, raising new questions about the region’s future.

The ceasefire deal, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, involves a series of provisions to temporarily ease tensions and is only the first phase of what negotiators hope will be a broader agreement.

"With this deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

Over the course of 42 days, Hamas agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, children, elderly men and two Americans, while Israel committed to freeing 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. The truce also allows humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, with hundreds of trucks carrying food and medical supplies arriving daily. 

Despite this influx of aid, UN Humanitarian Chief Tom Fletcher has warned that the situation remains fragile, and if the ceasefire collapses, Gaza could rapidly fall into an even deeper humanitarian crisis. 

“The conditions are still terrible, and people are still hungry,” Fletcher said. “If the ceasefire falls, if the ceasefire breaks, then very quickly those (famine-like) conditions will come back again.”

This ceasefire follows a long history of attempted peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians, many of which have failed to produce lasting stability.

The Oslo Accords of 1993 enabled limited Palestinian self-governance, but peace unraveled as the 2000 Camp David Summit collapsed, sparking the Second Intifada. The 2007 Annapolis Conference reaffirmed a two-state solution yet failed to resolve key issues. 

Complicating the situation further is President Donald Trump's recent proposal for the United States to take control of the Gaza Strip. 

In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netenyahu on Feb. 4, 2024 Trump suggested that the U.S. could "take over" Gaza, relocate its Palestinian residents to neighboring countries, and redevelop the area into the "Riviera of the Middle East" with Netenyahu supporting the proposal. 

"I believe, Mr. President, that your willingness to puncture conventional thinking, thinking that has failed time and time and time again,” Netanyahu said. “Your willingness to think outside the box with fresh ideas will help us achieve all these goals."

This proposal has been met with widespread condemnation. Palestinian leaders have rejected the idea, emphasizing their right to remain in their homeland. International bodies and human rights organizations have criticized the plan as a form of ethnic cleansing and a violation of international law.

"Trump can go to hell, with his ideas, with his money, and with his beliefs. We are going nowhere. We are not some of his assets," said Samir Abu Basel, a father of five in Gaza City displaced from his house by the war.

Countries such as Italy, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have also expressed strong opposition, reaffirming their support for a two-state solution with Gaza as part of a future Palestinian state. 

“We are in favor of two peoples, two states,” said Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. “I have said that we are even ready to send Italian soldiers for a mission to reunify Gaza with the West Bank.”

American politicians have their own reservations, arguing that it is not in the best interest of the United States to invest in Gaza.

"I thought we voted for America first," Republican Senator Rand Paul said on X. "We have no business contemplating yet another occupation to doom our treasure and spill our soldiers' blood."

Without a clear political process addressing these issues, and statements like Trump’s fueling the tension further, analysts warn that the ceasefire may not hold, potentially sowing the seeds for future conflict. 

Vilda Westh Blanc is a staff writer for OTR and a sophomore in the SFS studying IPOL security. She is a citizen of France and Sweden but now resides in a small town outside Nashville, Tennessee.