Europe faces a defense dilemma under President Trump 2.0

Photo via CNBC

ANAGHA CHAKRAVARTI: On Monday, Feb. 3, several European leaders including representatives from the 27 member nations of the European Union (EU) met in Brussels to discuss defense. This was the “first ever meeting of European leaders dedicated exclusively to defense,” and it provides key insights on the EU’s security posture and policy under the new Trump Administration.

There have been several news articles and scholarly analyses on the future of Europe’s defense and security apparatus in the new Trump era. This recent event provides a helpful snapshot. According to European Council President António Costa, the Feb. 3 meeting was an “informal gathering to address the EU's defense policy.” This is a clear sign that Europe and the European Union are reassessing or adjusting their defense posture and security interests in today’s geopolitical landscape. It also responds to efforts and rhetoric from the Trump administration. 

Among the leaders present for Monday's meeting were British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and North Atlantic treaty organization (NATO) Chief Mark Rutte. Most of the European leaders united on the need for increased defense spending and European weapon system consolidation  to counter threats from Russia. Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a key catalyst in convincing, “Europe’s leaders that they needed to spend more money on defense.”

Mark Rutte emphasized the continued “importance of the NATO-EU partnership,” and the need to support Ukraine. 23 of the current 27 EU member states are also part of NATO. Rutte therefore was in favor of “EU efforts to boost European defense,” and how this will subsequently support the legitimacy of NATO’s deterrence in the region. 

Among the defense and security topics discussed included “military financing and joint procurement.”  In terms of financing, EU leaders discussed how to garner more public and private funding through the EU budget, the European investment bank and by the efforts of national governments. EU leaders discussed how to bolster their defense capabilities to support the work of the European Defense agency by talking about air and missile defense and military mobility. The idea of collective defense and joint procurement—which was emphasized in the meeting—could cut costs and allow the European Union and European countries to present a more united front on their security posture. 

However, European countries have different capabilities, challenges and priorities when it comes to defense and “many EU member nations see defense from (a) national perspective.” For example, Germany, while they do support Ukraine,  was initially more hesitant about sending weapons to Ukraine and has generally retained limits on its military spending. They have increased defense spending in recent years as part of its commitment to NATO’s defense spending target. Hungary has been more reluctant to send aid and opposed arms shipments to Ukraine. Some southern European countries have been more cautious and divided on sending military aid to Ukraine.

Other topics in the meeting included Europe’s relationship with the United States, including President Trump's demands on acquiring Greenland and potential new US tariffs on Europe. 

According to President Trump, he is planning to impose tariffs on European allies “pretty soon.” So far it seems that European leaders “aren't budging Trump's demand to take over Greenland,” and are mostly against the recent unraveling of the trade war.

Defense analysts reported that this meeting signifies that Europe is eager to be more proactive in the defense realm but also “reduce its military dependency on the United States.” US President Donald Trump has often discussed the idea of burden sharing within NATO and for European allies to spend more on defense. Recent estimates show that many EU nations have increased their spending on defense. However, it is unlikely to match President Trump’s demands, who recently urged NATO members—many of which are European countries—to “spend 5% of GDP on defense.” 

Overall, this meeting was significant for European leaders to discuss how to maintain European security, strengthen their defense capabilities, address related funding issues and how to approach their alliance with the US. As the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen said “there are clearly new challenges and growing uncertainty,”  while affirming that the US and Europe remain key partners and allies on the world stage. She is said to have suggested “triggering an emergency clause to allow EU countries to increase defense spending.” 

The closed door meeting on Monday will eventually culminate in a long term defense policy proposal outlined by the European Commission which will be discussed during the EU leaders’ summit in June 2025.

Anagha Chakravarti is a staff writer for On the Record. She is from Delhi, India and grew up in Manila, Philippines. She is a senior in the School of Foreign Service, majoring in International Politics, minoring in International Development and completing a certificate in European Studies.