What’s Going on with Russia? — Timeline Update and Temperature Check

Photo via Reuters

VILDA WEST BLANC: Between President Trump’s threats to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, a failed ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, and rising chatter about a potential UN-led interim government in Ukraine, peace for Ukrainians and Russians still feels like a distant dream.

Two months into Trump’s presidency, his bold campaign promise to end the war “within 24 hours” remains far from reality. While the President has held multiple talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin—discussing both military and economic deals—the drama hit a new level when top U.S. officials met with Russian leaders in Saudi Arabia, notably without Ukrainian representatives at the table. The optics of this exclusion raised international concerns.

Following early diplomatic tensions, Putin suggested a temporary UN-led government in Ukraine to oversee new elections. The idea was quickly shot down. 

Ukrainian officials called it a violation of sovereignty, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres clarified: “Ukraine has a legitimate government, and so obviously that must be respected”

Tensions peaked on February 28 when Zelensky visited the White House to finalize a minerals agreement. The meeting quickly spiraled into a heated exchange, with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Zelensky of not genuinely seeking peace. The unusually public confrontation shocked global viewers, and the deal fell apart as Zelensky was abruptly asked to leave.

Since then, the U.S. has taken an inconsistent stance, initially halting military aid and cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. This decision was reversed after Ukraine tentatively agreed to a ceasefire on March 11—though notably, Russia never signed on.

Trump has continued efforts to bring Putin to the table, but Russia’s demands remain extreme and largely nonnegotiable. On March 21, Russia launched a drone strike on Odessa, underlining the fragility of the situation and reinforcing Russia’s violent stance in the conflict. 

Talks resumed this week in Riyadh, this time with all three parties present. An agreement was reached to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea” with Ukraine committed to halting military activity in the region.

However, Russia quickly backtracked, stating it would only honor the deal if financial sanctions were lifted on key institutions—bringing negotiations back to square one.

Despite Trump’s efforts to appear diplomatic, his friendliness toward Putin has drawn criticism. Trump recently remarked that Moscow may be “dragging their feet”—a tactic he admitted to using himself in the past. Meanwhile, European leaders, particularly French President Emmanuel Macron, have remained steadfast in their vocal support for Ukraine.

In a televised address earlier this month, Macron warned that Russian aggression “knows no borders” and emphasized that Europe must be prepared to defend Ukraine, even without guaranteed U.S. support. Macron has since pledged an additional €2 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank missiles, drones and more Mirage fighter jets.

Back in the U.S., lawmakers from both parties have expressed concern over Trump’s wavering stance. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the President’s pursuit of what he called an “illusory peace,” arguing that it “shreds America’s credibility, weakens alliances, and emboldens adversaries.”

Public opinion isn’t much more favorable. A recent CNN poll found that 59% of Americans believe it’s not likely that Trump’s approach will bring long-term peace between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, 55% disapprove of his handling of the situation in Ukraine, and 59% disapprove of how he’s managing the U.S.-Russia relationship overall.

As the war grinds on and diplomatic efforts continue to stall, Trump’s role in the conflict is being watched closely. With global trust hanging in the balance and allies growing increasingly vocal, the question remains: can Trump chart a path to peace—or is he becoming part of the problem?

Vilda Westh Blanc is a staff writer for OTR and a sophomore in the SFS studying IPOL security. She is a citizen of France and Sweden but now resides in a small town outside Nashville, Tennessee.