Germany’s Election Upends Politics as CDU/CSU Wins, AfD Surges, and Coalition Uncertainty Looms

Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor of Germany, is caught between a rock and a hard place in forming the next government in Europe’s most populous nation. (Courtesy: Wikimedia Commons)

RYAN LI: Germany went to the polls on Feb. 23 to elect 630 deputies in the Bundestag (German Parliament). While Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic and Christian Social Unions (CDU/CSU) won the largest share of the vote, securing 28.5 percent of voters’ ballots, the second-place hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took the spotlight, winning nearly 21 percent of the vote in its best national finish in the party’s history. 

Sunday’s snap election was triggered by the collapse of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left coalition government, consisting of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the free-market FDP. Disagreements over increasing Germany’s deficit—opposed by the fiscally conservative FDP—triggered the government’s downfall. With polls showing the center-left coalition as Germany’s most unpopular government since World War 2, voters punished all three parties in Sunday’s vote, with the FDP falling below Germany’s five percent threshold to receive seats in the Bundestag, while the SPD dropped from 26 percent to 16 percent—its lowest vote share since 1886. 

With final results tallied, attention now turns to coalition negotiations. Germany’s proportional representation system means no party has held an outright majority since 1961. The CDU/CSU, with an estimated 208 seats, is far short of the 316 needed for a majority, ensuring yet another coalition government.

Mathematically, the CDU/CSU seems poised to be the senior party in any coalition, since even if all the left-wing parties put their stark differences aside to form government, they would only end up with 269 seats—well short of what’s needed to form a stable majority government. Therefore, CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz is widely expected to be installed as Chancellor in one of two possible coalition configurations: a right-wing partnership with the AfD, or a grand, centrist coalition with the SPD. Neither are very palatable to voters.

Historically, no establishment party has cooperated with the far-right AfD because of its extremist viewpoints, creating a brandmauer (firewall) to prevent the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration party from entering government. While Friedrich Merz, broke tradition this January by collaborating with the AfD to pass immigration reforms, he has repeatedly ruled out collaborating with the AfD post-election and even if this right-wing coalition would possess 360 seats—well clear of a majority in the Bundestag—the political fallout may be too great to risk.

The other foreseeable coalition would see the CDU/CSU ally with the SPD to form a grand coalition, which has happened in three of the last five governments. However, voter frustration with the SPD-led government—and Scholz’s insistence on staying on as chancellor despite deep unpopularity—makes this a hard sell. Should the CDU/CSU and SPD form another coalition government, voters may feel betrayed that they are getting more of the same after voting for change, further propelling the anti-establishment rhetoric that initially brought the AfD to prominence. Especially for the more right-wing faction of the CDU/CSU, of which Merz belongs, the SPD shares much fewer policy positions with the center-right than the AfD.

The path forward remains uncertain. Whatever Merz decides, he faces a difficult balancing act in navigating Germany’s shifting political landscape. And given the country’s growing volatility, forming a government may be just the beginning of the challenges ahead.

Ryan Li is a freshman in the College studying public policy with a minor in economics. He is interested in electoral politics and the fight against poverty.