From Collapse to Comeback: A Key to Understanding How Mark Carney Revived the Liberal Party
Photo via Wikimedia Commons
RYAN LI: The Liberal Party (in red) is threatening to pull off a historic comeback for Canada’s April 28 snap election.
Imagine if Donald Trump governed for a decade, only to find himself deeply unpopular just months before an election. With his approval ratings in free fall and the Republican Party staring down the worst defeat in its history, he resigns, handing the reins to a fresh-faced successor. Suddenly, the GOP—despised by 80% of voters mere months ago—surges to an eight-point lead, poised for a historic victory.
That, in effect, is what Mark Carney has done for the Canadian Liberal Party.
When outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Jan. 6, the Liberals were languishing at just over 20% in the polls, dwarfed by the opposition Conservatives at 44.2%. Three months later, in the midst of a snap election campaign, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has catapulted the Liberals to 43.5%, overtaking the Conservatives (now at 37.4%) and sitting well above the 172-seat threshold for a majority in the House of Commons.
Here are three reasons why Carney’s Liberals are experiencing this meteoric rise in support.
Mark Carney is not Justin Trudeau.
Most Canadian Prime Ministers don’t last beyond a decade. By then, scandals and voter fatigue generally push the incumbent out of office. This was no different for Trudeau, whose tenure was marred by corruption controversies and mounting frustrations over the cost of living, immigration, and the opioid crisis, which made him the most unpopular leader in the G7, with a net approval rating of -40%. As soon as Trudeau announced his resignation, the Liberals’ poll numbers shot up. By the time Mark Carney was sworn into office on March 14, the Liberals were already sitting at 32%, proof that Canadians were simply sick of Trudeau.
Voters see Carney as the best leader to oppose Donald Trump.
President Trump has not been shy about his comments about wanting to make Canada the “51st state,” a proposition that over 90% of Canadians oppose. With Trump’s repeated tariff threats causing many Canadians to boycott American-made goods and boo the Star Spangled Banner at sporting events, Canadian patriotism has risen to an all-time high, and this election campaign has effectively become a referendum on which candidate can most firmly stand strong against the White House. While Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has repeatedly denounced Donald Trump’s actions, his focus on domestic issues such as the cost of living, instead of discussing at length how he would oppose the American President, has led voters to flock to Carney’s camp. The Liberals have capitalized on this issue, with Carney focusing most election ads and campaign stops on President Trump’s rhetoric, in order to take heat away from their ugly track record on the very issues that caused their party to poll at 20% just three months prior.
Carney is consolidating the left.
Contrary to popular belief, the Liberals aren’t stealing many votes from the Conservatives. While the Conservatives are down seven percent from January, the real electoral collapse has been on the Liberals’ left. The leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) has plunged from 19% to 8%, facing near electoral wipeout with just three projected seats—down from 103 in 2011 and 25 in the last Parliament—while the socially liberal Bloc Québécois has seen its Quebec support shrink from 36% to 24% (as the Bloc is a nationalist Quebecois party, they only run candidates in Quebec).
Rather than flipping Conservative voters, Carney is uniting progressive Canadians under one banner, creating a de facto anti-Poilievre coalition. Canada’s other left-wing parties have been let in shambles trying to find ways to rebuild support.
Despite the Liberals’ dramatic resurgence, the April 28 election is far from over. Campaigns can shift quickly and, with nearly a month to go, unforeseen events, debate performances, or strategic missteps could alter the political landscape once again. A shift in voters’ priorities towards domestic issues may swing the pendulum back to the Conservatives, while it remains to be seen what the NDP and Bloc Québécois will do to try and win back progressive support.
For now, Carney’s Liberals appear to have the momentum. But as history has shown, in politics, nothing is certain until the final votes are cast.
Ryan Li is a freshman in the College studying public policy with a minor in economics from Vancouver, Canada. He is interested in electoral politics and the fight against poverty.