The battle to become the next California governor

Photo via State Affairs

FREDERICK BAO: Long known as a Democratic stronghold, California is on the verge of its first Republican governor in nearly 15 years. With incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom restricted by term limits and no clear replacement in line, California Democrats have a crowded field of candidates vying for the position. 

On June 2, California voters will head to the polls for the state’s primary elections, headlined by a competitive race for governor. Following the passage of the Top-Two Candidates Open Primary Act in 2011, California has held open primaries for congressional and state-level offices. Consequently, in the election for governor, the top two candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election in November regardless of party affiliation. 

Currently, the field consists of 10 total candidates, including two Republicans and eight Democrats. Both Republican candidates—Steve Hilton, a former Fox News contributor, and Chad Bianco, the current Riverside County Sheriff—support President Donald Trump. On the Democratic side, the candidates range from members of Congress—Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell—to local and state representatives—Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, Betty Yee, Tony Thurmond, Xavier Becerra—to billionaire and former presidential candidate Tom Steyer. 

Due to the overwhelming disparity in the number of Republican and Democratic candidates, conservative voters have largely consolidated their votes within the two Republicans, while progressive voters have split their votes across the eight Democrats. As a result, in the majority of recent polls, both Republican candidates have finished in first and second, leaving Democrats at risk of being left out of the general election. 

With primary election day officially less than two months away and still no clear-cut Democratic frontrunner, the real possibility of a Republican governor has begun to set in for Democratic leaders in California. On March 3, Rusty Hicks, Chair of the California Democratic Party, penned an open letter calling for those who “do not have a viable path to the General Election” to drop out, hoping to consolidate the Democratic field.

Since Hicks’ letter, the race has taken an adverse turn with California Democrats attacking one another. The majority of the field largely ignored the calls to drop out, with Thurmond accusing Hicks of “telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out.” Similarly, a debate between the candidates hosted by the University of Southern California at the end of March was cancelled less than 24 hours before the planned start time due to backlash for the exclusion of all the minority candidates. 

Likewise, in recent weeks, between the Democratic frontrunners, Steyer and Swalwell, personal attacks have ramped up. Steyer has publicly questioned Swalwell’s California residency, even penning an official letter to the California Secretary of State calling for the exclusion of Swalwell from the race. 

More consequently, Swalwell’s campaign has been in freefall after multiple allegations of sexual assault against the Congressman emerged in recent days. As a result, Swalwell has lost key endorsements, including California Senator Adam Schiff and the influential California Teachers Association. Swalwell has denied these allegations while simultaneously acknowledging that they would be best handled outside a campaign, ending his run for governor. 

With Democrats squabbling among themselves to no avail and the frontrunner dropping out, voters are left confused, risking a safe victory in an overly favorable climate for Democratic candidates across the country. Yet, perhaps President Trump’s recent questionable decision-making process has bled into the California governor’s race, bailing out the Democrat dysfunction: with his recent endorsement of Steve Hilton, Republican voters are likely to consolidate their votes, leaving the second spot in the general election open for a Democrat.  

Frederick Bao is a freshman studying International Politics in the School of Foreign Service.