Could Alaska and Montana US House seats decide the presidency?

TAKUYA AMAGAI: There is a possible scenario in this election where none of the candidates receive 270 electoral votes. The process then moves to the U.S. House of Representatives, where each state delegation in the US House gets a vote. In this scenario, this makes Alaska and Montana U.S. House Representatives possible key votes in selecting the presidency.

If the House would have to decide the president, it currently favors the Republican Party. Analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball finds that Republicans right now have support from 26 delegations compared to 20 for the Democratic Party. (4 Delegations are rated as a Toss Up currently). For Democrats to maintain a majority of the state delegations, they would have to hold as many House seats as they can in the 2020 Election. Winning at-large seats in Montana and Alaska would be key to achieving this goal.

Montana

Montana is represented by a single House Representative who is elected statewide. The Republican Party has held the at-large seat since 1994, but they are currently defending an open seat since the incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte is running for Governor in Montana. Both parties have a decent chance of winning this seat. Montana has voted for Democratic candidates statewide in recent election years. In 2018, U.S. Sen. Jon Tester won reelection in Montana by 50.3% to 46.8%. In 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock won reelection by 50.2% to 46.4%, while Donald Trump won Montana by 55.6% to 35.4%. Additionally, the current Republican candidate Matt Rosendale lost the race for the Senate seat in 2018 and is currently being outspent by the Democratic candidate Kathleen Williams. Recent electoral wins and a potential underperformance by the Republican candidate gives hope to Democrats that flipping the at-large seat in Montana would be doable.

There are also signs that the Republican Party has a decent chance of holding this seat. As mentioned above, Republicans have won this seat since 1994. Moreover, President Trump is likely to win Montana in 2020, which will benefit down-ballot Republican candidates. It is also important to note that the Democratic U.S. House candidate Kathleen Williams had run for the same seat in 2018 and lost 46.2% to 50.9%.

Alaska

Similar to Montana, a single House Representative represents Alaska. The position has been held by House Rep. Don Young, who has been elected to the seat since 1972 (He is the longest-serving member in the U.S. House). Alaska elected a Democratic Candidate Mark Begich to the Senate in 2008. While Democrats have not been elected statewide in Alaska recently, there are some signs that they might pull off a win in Alaska. The current Democratic candidate Alyse Galvin ran in 2018 for the same seat and despite her loss, Don Young still had a smaller margin of victory compared to his recent elections in 2016 and 2014. Galvin has also outraised Don Young in the current election, which gives her an additional advantage in 2020.

Republicans, however, have pretty good odds of winning this seat. Firstly, they have the incumbent Don Young, who has represented this seat for nearly 50 years. To win, Galvin would have to persuade a large number of voters, who previously voted for Rep. Young. Secondly, Donald Trump is likely to carry Alaska in the 2020 presidential election, which will provide a positive down-ballot effect for Republican candidates. Considering that the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Alaska was President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, it is very likely that Republicans are likely to win statewide. 

Speaker Pelosi and President Trump have both acknowledged the possibility that the next president could be decided in the House. While it may be highly unlikely that both of the presidential candidates will fail to obtain 270 electoral votes, Democrats should spend resources in both of these races to avoid this scenario. Democrats are facing tough races in states like Florida and Pennsylvania where they are trying to secure a majority of the state’s delegation. Flipping Montana and Alaska would give Democrats some much-needed breathing room in the contest to secure the majority of the nation’s delegations.

Takuya Amagai is an MPP Student in Class 2022. He is originally from Tokyo, Japan, and is a cat person.