President Trump: don't blame mail-in voting if you lose
ETHAN JOHANSON: Although states’ underdeveloped vote-by-mail infrastructures could hinder the election’s efficiency and cause logistical errors, President Trump, who opposed attempts to increase funding for the U.S. Postal Service and states’ electoral operations, should not use vote-by-mail mishaps to dispute the legitimacy of the election if he loses.
Many states have expanded mail-in voting options to accommodate voter concerns about in-person voting during a pandemic. Other states have adopted all-mail elections, joining Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington — states that already conduct elections universally by mail. In response to the expansion of mail-in voting, some politicians, mostly Republicans led by President Trump, have voiced concerns about its efficacy and security.
Trump’s concerns about mail-in voting’s susceptibility to fraud are largely unfounded. Although studies consistently show that mail-in voting has a low risk of fraud, the increased volume of mail-in ballots may pose logistical challenges for states, especially those not accustomed to processing a high percentage of them.
New York City’s June 23 primary election between Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney and Suraj Patel, which took six weeks to resolve and involved 10 times the usual number of absentee ballots in a primary, foreshadows possible difficulties with processing an influx of mailed ballots for the general election. The primary received criticism for the delayed announcement of the winner and the invalidation of a high number of ballots due to logistical errors such as missing signatures on ballot envelopes and the use of tape to seal them. States may encounter similar logistical difficulties and delays when sorting through an increased volume of mail-in ballots during the general election, which is more labor intensive than machine counts of in-person votes.
States with already established vote-by-mail infrastructures will likely adapt well to a higher percentage of mail-in ballots this fall. Oregon, for example, despite having to reconfigure its vote-counting operations, was able to avoid delaying its May 19 primary.
However, the difference between Oregon –– a state considered to be a vote-by-mail model for the country –– and the 16 states that were forced to delay their primaries this year is that Oregon has developed its vote-by-mail system through years of trial and error.
Oregon’s history of vote-by-mail began on a local scale in 1981 and expanded to primary and general elections in 1998. The decades of experience with vote-by-mail has afforded Oregon the opportunity to fine-tune its system: it has implemented safeguards to combat fraud, including signature verification and optional secrecy envelopes, created a mechanism by which voters can track their ballots and developed a process of reviewing public records to ensure that voter registration databases remain accurate after citizens change addresses or die.
Importantly, Oregonian voters and elections workers, unlike voters whose states have made recent changes to voting rules in response to the pandemic, have had time to grow accustomed to the system’s rules. Training elections workers how to process the ballots, teaching voters how to fill out and send their ballots and obtaining the necessary equipment will serve as obstacles to states effectively conducting elections this year.
Although vote-by-mail will introduce elements of uncertainty, the state of the pandemic calls for lawmakers and government officials to strengthen mail-in voting procedures and provide citizens with reliable alternatives to voting in person. In the months leading up to the general election, Democrats in Congress have attempted to allocate funding to states for electoral operations. Besides the $400 million allocation of funds to election security grants included in Congress’ Phase 3 coronavirus package, which fell well short of the estimated $2 billion states need to address voting-related challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic, their efforts have been blocked by Republicans.
Furthermore, Postal Service delays may complicate mail-in voting. In July, Thomas J. Marshall, the general counsel for the Postal Service, sent a letter to states informing them that the Postal Service may not be able to meet some states’ deadlines for delivering mail-in ballots to election boards. The Democrats’ attempt to allocate funding to the debt-ridden Postal Service and help it avoid pre-election delays was opposed by Trump, who feared it would lead to universal mail-in voting.
Regardless of whether or not mail-in voting is easily susceptible to fraud, Trump’s anti-vote-by-mail rhetoric appears to be working. Polls show that the number of citizens planning to vote by mail is declining due to concerns about the Postal Service’s reliability and Trump’s constant attacks against mail-in voting. Confusion about mail-in voting rules and decisions issued by state supreme courts, including a ruling issued by the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court to discard ballots without secrecy envelopes, have even convinced some Democratic officials to encourage supporters to vote in person, rather than by mail.
Fewer people voting by mail might help states avoid the kind of long delays and logistical errors that New York City experienced in its primary, but it also might create situations that the expansion of mail-in voting was meant to prevent: the formation of clusters around polling stations that trigger coronavirus hotspots.
Although many polling stations are implementing mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines, election officials are worried that the greater-than-expected number of in-person voters could lead to unsafe crowding and excessively long lines on Election Day. Instead of working with states and the Postal Service at the outset of the pandemic to build more secure and reliable vote-by-mail options, an action that could have assured voters that they can exercise their right to vote without jeopardizing their health, Trump has deliberately undermined confidence in mail-in voting, providing himself an avenue to challenge the legitimacy of the election in the event that he loses.
If the outcome of the presidential election remains ambiguous past November 3, Trump will likely blame it on the inefficiency and shortcomings of vote-by-mail, deeming the process illegitimate. Americans must remember that it was his administration and the Republican Party that refused to improve the safest voting procedure during a public health crisis.
Ethan Johanson is a freshman in the College from Portland, Oregon. Planning on studying Government, his interests include politics, computer science, and journalism.