#HoyasInIA: Reevaluating the “Rules” of the Iowa Caucus

KELVIN DOE: From reading and watching the constant coverage of the democratic field in the lead-up to this contest, I have developed a feel for some common narratives that are being pushed about the election. Part of why I came to Iowa is to broaden my perspective about the race. By listening to and questioning a revolving door of political operatives, journalists, and Iowans, I have been compelled to rethink what I have been told about the upcoming caucus. Over the next few days, I’ll talk about some “rules” I always believed and why they might not hold. 

“Rule” 1: You Cannot Skip Iowa

One classic piece of advice in democratic party politics is “don’t skip Iowa.” Iowa is proud of its position as the first contest and does not take very well to skipping the caucus entirety—  just ask Joe Lieberman. However, a position I have heard multiple times frames Bloomberg’s strategy as far more reasonable than he is given credit for. Imagine that Biden loses steam, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Warren cannot fundraise enough in the later states, and that the only remaining viable contender is the original king of small-dollar donations at the presidential level, Bernie Sanders. This is the world the Bloomberg campaign envisions: the last remaining Democrat on the field is Sanders and no more moderate option, less prone to dividing the party, exists. Bloomberg views himself as the last line of defense in case the moderates of the party fail to secure a candidate. 

As a Texan from a suburban, Trump-leaning district, it makes little sense for a Democratic candidate to advertise to me. Only a campaign with serious resources would invest in trying to reach me or any of the other democrats in my area. Bloomberg is that campaign. Maybe that’s why I see four of his ads back to back— because money is of no consequence to him, and he aims to spend whatever it takes to protect the Super Tuesday states from only having Bernie to choose from. Is this viable? Maybe not, but no other campaign has attempted skipping Iowa with the scale of financial investment Bloomberg has already made. 

That is just one thing I have learned in Iowa, and it is only day two. 

Kelvin Doe is one of six students on the ground in Iowa with GU Politics. From January 31 through February 4, 2020, these students will be sharing their experience at the Iowa caucus with OTR.