#HoyasInIA: Calling the Caucus

The first primary contest of the 2020 presidential race begins tonight in Iowa! For the past few days, we have not only met with countless political reporters and campaign staff, but also attended Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden rallies. What we saw on the ground changed our perspectives and might surprise you. 

We decided to rank our top three candidates based on state delegate equivalents. In a Democratic caucus, candidates must first achieve viability by drawing 15% of caucus-goers. After nonviable candidate groups realign themselves, the final tally allocates delegates to candidates proportionally.

Without further ado, here are our predictions! 

KELVIN DOE:

1. Bernie Sanders

2. Pete Buttigieg

3. Elizabeth Warren

This trip has definitely changed my thoughts on the upcoming caucus. I used to think Biden was a viable candidate, but soon to be published revelations have made me think otherwise. Based off of what I’ve heard while here, Sanders has essentially been campaigning since the 2016 elections. He’s got a strong Iowa base that he can rely on and that makes toppling him from first hard. Buttigieg possesses the most well-organized campaign operation I have seen thus far. Organization is key to winning Iowa, so I see him as gaining a second place finish. Warren knows how to pack rallies and keep to her talking points. Her current popularity and my prediction of Biden’s waning support make her my choice for third.

MACKY GRIMM:

1. Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren

2. Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren

3. Pete Buttigieg

My instinct is that Biden will end up winning less delegates than expected and will probably end up top 4 or 5. Buttigieg supporters will really turn out in the moment and change some undecided caucus-goers’ decisions after first alignment though. From what I’ve seen they’re the most enthusiastic, whereas Biden supporters don’t seem to have a unified base. Those already aligned with Bernie or Warren won’t find any trouble making viability.

JACK RYAN:

1. Bernie Sanders/Pete Buttigieg

2. Bernie Sanders/Pete Buttigieg

3. Elizabeth Warren

While polling has generally placed Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at the helm of the battle for Iowa, the enthusiasm and organization that we’ve seen on the ground point to stronger-than-expected turnouts for Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. It also seems that Biden’s once-formidable lead may not translate into the energy needed to court the first-alignment voters needed to build a substantial lead in delegates. I expect Biden to seriously underperform in delegates and second alignment voters.

GRACE SHEVCHENKO:

1. Bernie Sanders

2. Pete Buttigieg 

3. Elizabeth Warren

After a weekend in Iowa, I’ve seen so much enthusiasm for Bernie and Pete as potential new directions for the Democratic party. Most importantly, I’ve seen that they have the strongest on the ground operations to organize volunteers and supporters, which is integral to success on the night of the caucus. Warren supporters are also showing up and sharing their excitement about Warren as the potential first female president and believe that it is time to put a woman in the White House — making her finish with strong results in third place. Although Biden has nationally been seen as a leading candidate, I think that the former vice president will perform poorly as a result of a weak network of volunteers and little ability to inspire excitement. Ultimately, undecided voters are looking to see who will be the most electable against President Trump in November, and I’m excited to see what they decide!

GRACE XU: 

1. Bernie Sanders 

2. Pete Buttigieg 

3. Elizabeth Warren/Joe Biden

Sanders’s intensely loyal base, which has only grown since 2016, will show up and bring the fight. Neither he nor Buttigieg will have a problem with turnout. Buttigieg does not have the same background or brand in Iowa, but his grassroots game is impressive. His rally was by far the most demographically diverse and energetic. Warren has performed solidly in Iowa, but voters’ trust in her ability to defeat President Trump has been questioned in recent weeks. Biden’s rally was severely underwhelming, but a significant portion of older supporters in Iowa may turn up regardless. He may end up with fewer voters, but possibly the same number of delegates. To #YangGang, he could be viable in a few precincts!

KIRA MACAULEY:

1. Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders

2. Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders

3. Pete Buttigieg

While I had a feeling that Buttigieg would do well before getting to Iowa, this trip has emphasized to me the strength of his campaign. I think he will do better than polls suggest, and likely come in second in terms of delegates. Senators Warren and Sanders have strong support here in Iowa. While door-knocking, we found that many caucusers were already committed to caucusing for one of these candidates, and that’s why I think they’ll tie for first place. As we’ve seen on the campaign trail here in Iowa, the Biden campaign seems fatigued. Despite a base of older support, Biden’s campaign simply cannot compete in Iowa with the progressives. If anything is clear to me on caucus eve, it’s that there are a lot of people who haven’t decided who they’ll caucus for. In a race this close, it makes it even more contentious that a large percentage of Iowans will be entering their precincts uncommitted.

The #HoyasInIA program sees students travel to Iowa to experiencing the campaigning and caucusing process. From January 31 through February 4, 2020, these students will be sharing their experience at the Iowa caucus with OTR.