Florida’s 28th: How a single congressional district could flip the House
ZACHARY FOTIADIS: With Democrats currently holding a mere five-seat majority in the House of Representatives, a single race could determine the fate of the Lower Chamber’s leadership. Following the release of data from the 2020 Census, Florida will gain its long-coveted additional congressional district, increasing the national significance of the hotly contested bellwether state. This brings the number of seats up for grabs in the 2022 midterm elections to 28, the highest in the state’s history and the third-highest in the country.
While many of Florida’s congressional races have been just as competitive as statewide elections, Republicans currently have an edge. Thanks to the 2020 victories of Representatives Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar in their respective Miami-based seats, Republicans now represent 16 of the state’s 27 congressional districts. The party will hope to replicate this phenomenon with the newest district in 2022.
It is no secret that Republicans’ hearts are set on expanding their congressional dominance in the influential state which, despite its traditionally purple status, has been trending red in recent years. With former President Trump having expanded his statewide margin of victory in 2020 and Republicans currently holding the governorship and both Senate seats for the first time since Reconstruction, momentum is clearly in their favor. Winning in competitive Florida races will almost certainly be a major component of their strategy to reclaim the House next cycle, as they capitalize on the state’s rightward shift.
Much speculation has gone into where and how the newest district will be drawn. Most of the state’s whopping 15% population growth between 2010 and 2020 has been concentrated in its central region, stretching from the Tampa Bay Area through the Orlando metro area and into Volusia County. This politically significant territory along Interstate 4, referred to as the I-4 Corridor, is often viewed as the battleground of America’s battleground state due to determining the outcomes of many state and national elections. Analysts predict with near certainty that the new seat would be added to this region, a prospect that could substantially alter the dynamics of Florida’s congressional delegation.
The creation of a new district would require the statewide congressional map to be at least partially redrawn, with other districts experiencing border shifts and acquiring new constituencies. These changes would likely benefit Republicans to a greater degree. The 13th district, comprising almost the entirety of Pinellas County, is already one of the most competitive districts in the state and may be redrawn to absorb solidly Republican terrain from neighboring Pasco County. With incumbent Representative Charlie Crist vacating the seat as he makes a third bid for the Governor’s Mansion, the chances of a pickup only increase. Republicans are likely salivating over the high likelihood of a win in a favorably-redrawn 13th district with no incumbent Democrat. Republicans may also give longtime target Representative Stephanie Murphy a run for her money by adding more conservative suburbs to the comparably purple 7th district. An increasingly red Florida congressional map would facilitate Republican efforts to retake the House.
As official redistricting begins, concerns over the impartiality of the process are already brewing, and for good reason. Florida has a long and tumultuous history with regards to gerrymandering, notably culminating in an unprecedented court-ordered redrawing of the congressional map in 2016 for violations of the state’s Fair Districts Amendment. Anxieties have been emerging, particularly among Democrats, as to the fairness of the anticipated district map for 2022.
Few safeguards exist to protect Democrats in the state. The comfortably Republican state legislature, responsible for the establishment of new districts, has already been accused of excluding Democratic members from the Senate Redistricting Committee. The state Supreme Court, which had previously blocked Republican-led gerrymandering efforts, now has several new justices appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis, making it less likely to side with Florida Democrats in the near future. Regardless, any perceived foul play is expected to result in a series of legal battles and rhetorical clashes.
As the 2022 midterms begin to ramp up, every congressional race will count. With Florida becoming a state increasingly favorable to Republicans, taking advantage of its redrawn and expanded map will almost certainly be crucial in their crusade to reacquire a House majority.
Zach Fotiadis is originally from Miami, Florida. He is currently a sophomore in the School of Foreign Service.