The New CCP: How a High-Profile Chinese Political Scandal Demonstrates Xi’s Growing Power

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PEER KHAN: Corruption investigations. Arrests of high-profile politicians. A political earthquake that fundamentally alters politics for one billion people while remaining a mystery to the rest of the world. 

When observers describe China’s domestic politics, it’s often referred to as a “black box” that shrouds itself in silence and secrecy. But under current President Xi Jinping, the famous “black box” analogy is likely even more applicable, as political infighting within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) becomes more opaque and confusing than ever before. 

In the past three months alone, corruption allegations and illicit scandals affected two high-ranking members of the Chinese government: Qin Gang, the former foreign minister ousted this past July, and Li Shangfu, the country’s defense minister, who was placed under investigation last month. 

Qin Gang was a mid-level diplomat who found career success from Xi’s patronage. Rumors surfaced about his sudden removal in July, and only recently did a report provide evidence that an extramarital affair in the US had ended Gang’s career. While not illegal and certainly not uncommon, Xi’s decision to remove Gang over the affair represents a distinct reality in the CCP’s new political playing field: Xi is the ultimate arbiter of saving an official from prosecution. Indeed, Gang’s case can be contrasted with Zhang Gaoli, a former Vice Premier and Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) member. Gaoli’s affair with Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai was exposed in 2021, but received no disciplinary action or coverage by the CCP, likely due to his close ties with Xi’s family. The bottom line is that Xi’s personal influence surpasses any real or fabricated crimes by CCP officials, meaning that no one is safe unless they have the confidence of Xi. 

The removal of Defence Minister Li Shangfu stemmed from allegations of illegal military procurement and corruption in bidding for government contracts. Li Shangfu’s father had close relations with Xi’s father Xi Zhongxun which bolstered his son’s career, leading him to be appointed as the highest-ranking senior official on the all-important Party Central Military Commission. Li’s fall blurs the boundaries between the CCP’s internal factions, as Li was a ‘Princeling’, a group of second-generation CCP officials who are favored by Xi due to their family connections and prestige. Such factional lines are not definitive, and absolute loyalty to Xi seems to be more important in the current political climate. 

While loyalty may favor Xi’s political power in the short-term, an environment of “yes men” could have significant policy implications for China’s future. With the Chinese economy slowing and the country facing several long-term demographic challenges, policymakers will need to foster a more open discussion (at least within the Party) to formulate solutions.

Some observers have commented that the fall of two key ministers who had supposedly close ties to Xi indicates that his standing within the Party may be damaged. This notion is misleading, mainly because the investigations likely could not have occurred without Xi’s express consent. Furthermore, neither Li Shangfu nor Qin Gang are considered to be within Xi’s innermost political circle, and are more easily dispensable than close allies like Premier Li Qiang. Clearly, the idea of “collective leadership” envisioned by Deng Xiaoping has been completely abandoned. Xi is likely to remain in power until at least 2032 with no obvious successor. 

With a stronger political position at home, Xi will be more likely to take bold foreign policy moves against the United States, especially with the issue of Taiwan. Domestic political struggles and potential dissent could also affect the Chinese government’s ability to frame cohesive foreign policy, and speculations about Xi’s absence at the G20 in New Delhi spark important questions about whether his control is solidified or not.

Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s saying of “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice” can be applied to the CCP today. It doesn’t matter who you are, as long as you are unwaveringly loyal to the man at the top. 

Peer Khan is a staff writer for On The Record. He is a freshman in the School of Foreign Service studying international politics from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In his free time, he enjoys hiking, reading, and spending time with friends.