The Battle For Texas: What’s At Stake Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

Photo via Axios

KENNEDY MOORE: While Texas State Representative James Talarico pulled out the victory over Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in early March, the Republican primary will head to a run-off, with neither candidate having received the endorsement of President Trump just yet.

Neither Republican Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), nor primary opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, reached the voting threshold to secure the outright nomination in the Republican primary. The general primary will take place on May 26.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) edged out state Attorney General Ken Paxton by one point in the Republican primary; the slim margin places five-term Sen. John Cornyn in the closest race of his Senate career. As of late March, State Rep. James Talarico is projected to narrowly defeat both the Republican candidates in the general election, according to Politico. Talarico beat Crockett by a margin of seven points on March 3 in the Democratic primary.

The contentious Texas race comes as Democrats need to flip a net total of four seats to take back the Senate in the 2026 midterms. However, Democrats have an uphill battle considering no politician of the party has held a statewide office in Texas since 1994. 

As of early April 2026, President Trump is still holding out on making an endorsement in the race. However, according to an interview with NBC News, support from the President may be contingent on the candidates’ backing of the SAVE America Act, a bill focused on tightening voter ID requirements and enhancing election security. 

In the same interview with NBC News, President Trump called James Talarico’s nomination “so weak,” and has repeatedly said a Republican candidate will pull off a victory, despite Talarico’s popularity at the polls. 

The Senate race has manifested into a depiction of the polarizing scene for Americans nationwide, as Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a controversial and hard-right nominee, leads Cornyn in polling according to TIME. In a tight race to the finish line, Sen. Cornyn’s campaign has increased ad spending upwards of $50 million in hopes of edging out his opponent. 

Talarico, 36, a Democrat and progressive, has tied his message closely to the demographic profile of Texas, intertwining Christian faith into his liberal agenda harnessed by digital media. While Rep. Crockett was seen as a high-profile partisan who attracted massive media attention, Talarico galvanized the center of the party and Texas voters seeking a more centrist nominee.

As the Senate run-off race between Sen. Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton approaches in late May, Republican leader John Thune (R-SD) is pushing Doanld Trump to endorse Senate veteran John Cornyn for the general election this fall. 

However, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) just announced their endorsement for Paxton, which may prove to be a much-needed boost heading into the last weeks before election night. 

Several Republican senators, such as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), have followed Trump’s lead, hesitating to back either candidate as of early April. 

As American voters watch closely, the Texas Senate race has become a broader symbol of division within the Republican Party and an emblematic struggle for Democrats to define what kind of candidate will represent a changing party amid shifting national leadership.

Kennedy Moore is a freshman studying Government with minors in Journalism and French in the College of Arts and Sciences from Bethesda, Maryland.